Match Analysis: North Texas Mean Green vs South Florida Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-10
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX
Game Overview
North Texas Mean Green (5-0) hosts South Florida Bulls (4-1) in a pivotal American Athletic Conference matchup. South Florida is favored by 1.5 points with an over/under total near 67.5, highlighting expectations of a competitive, high-scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas enters undefeated at 5-0 with strong defensive metrics, while South Florida holds a solid 4-1 record, showing offensive efficiency but with slightly less defensive consistency.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but current season performance favors North Texas's momentum. Both teams have strong AAC conference records, making this a key divisional game.
- No major injuries reported for either team affecting key starters, maintaining full strength rosters for both sides.
- Game played at North Texas home field with warm but stable weather (80Β°F, 0% rain, minimal wind) which benefits both teams' style of play.
- North Texas is motivated to preserve their perfect record and defend home turf; South Florida aims to assert dominance on the road and maintain AAC title hopes.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -105, away: -115 | South Florida Bulls | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | North Texas Mean Green: -115 on +1.5, South Florida Bulls: -105 on -1.5 | South Florida Bulls -1.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | over: -110 on 67.5, under: -110 on 67.5 | Over 67.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | South Florida Bulls 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 67.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: South Florida Bulls at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Florida Bulls to win straight up on the moneyline despite home dog status due to slight edge in offensive firepower and conference experience. Against the spread, the Bulls cover the -1.5 favor and the total likely goes over 67.5 points given offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: South Florida 35 – North Texas 31