Match Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Game Overview
This Big Ten matchup between Michigan State Spartans and Penn State Nittany Lions is a critical late-season game with both teams holding a 3-6 record, fighting for bowl eligibility and pride. Penn State enters as the favorite, but Michigan State has shown resilience covering spreads despite recent straight-up losses. Weather and home conditions may influence the game flow, favoring defensive struggles and a lower-scoring affair.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michigan State has been 3-2 in their last 5 games but only 1-4 against the spread, while Penn State holds a slight edge offensively, especially on the road. Michigan State has struggled straight up lately (0-5), but their ATS record indicates some value as underdogs. Penn State's offense averages around 45 points on the road but faces a stout Michigan State defense.
- Historically, this matchup tends to be close, with Michigan State unable to leverage a strong home field advantage recently (1-7 ATS at home in last eight). Past games have featured tight contests with no blowouts expected.
- No detailed current injury reports are available from the provided data, though ongoing inconsistencies at quarterback and offensive line instability affect both teams.
- Late November in East Lansing is known for cold, windy conditions and potentially poor field footing, favoring defensive teams and under scenarios. The public heavily favors Penn State on the moneyline and ATS, with 77% of money on Penn State indicating public confidence.
- Both teams are desperate for a win to keep postseason hopes alive or improve bowl positioning. Michigan State, as underdogs at home with nothing to lose, may play with added grit to upset the favorite Penn State.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans: +235, Penn State Nittany Lions: -290 | Penn State wins | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans: +7.5 -114, Penn State Nittany Lions: -7.5 -106 | Michigan State covers the +7.5 spread | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -114, Under: 48.5 -106 | Under 48.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions 118% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 26% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions at 118% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 50.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Penn State is favored to win by a close margin but Michigan State is expected to cover the spread given historical trends and current ATS records. The total points likely land under 48.5 due to weather and defensive competitiveness.
Predicted Score: Penn State 24, Michigan State 21