Match Analysis: UAB Blazers vs North Texas Mean Green – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
Game Overview
The North Texas Mean Green (8-1) visit the UAB Blazers (3-6) at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. North Texas enters as a heavy favorite with a strong passing defense (ranked 8th) facing UAB's potent passing attack (ranked 24th). North Texas has shown dominance in recent games especially against non-AP-ranked teams, while UAB struggles as a significant underdog. The line is heavily in favor of North Texas with an 18.5 point spread and a total near 70 points set for the game.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas boasts an 8-1 record with a top-3 scoring defense and top-25 scoring offense, averaging 44.4 points per game while allowing 24.1. UAB has a 3-6 record, struggles defensively allowing 37.1 points per game and has covered few spreads this season. North Texas is 7-2 ATS overall and 5-1 on the road; UAB is 2-3 ATS in recent and home games.
- Recent matchups strongly favor North Texas, who have won their last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams and consistently cover the spread versus teams like UAB. UAB has lost 15 of its last 16 contests as an underdog against similar opponents and has struggled to cover the spread in recent years against North Texas and comparable competition.
- No reported injuries for either team are currently available, suggesting full lineups will compete.
- The game is played at UAB's home stadium, where the home team has won 11 of the last 12 games, possibly adding a motivational edge. North Texas, however, has a strong November record covering spreads, but has lost three of four previous games in Alabama, which could have minor impact.
- North Texas aims to cement their dominance and maintain a top ranking with a likely conference championship in sight, offering high motivation. UAB plays at home with the advantage of recent home successes and a strong desire to avoid further season losses, adding an underdog grit factor.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green: -1400, UAB Blazers: 810 | North Texas Mean Green win | โ โ โ โ โ 93% |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green: -18.5 -115, UAB Blazers: +18.5 -105 | North Texas Mean Green -18.5 covers | โ โ โ โ โ 89% |
| Over/under | Over: 70.5 -105, Under: 70.5 -115 | Under 70.5 points | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 70.5 40% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 70.5 at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas is strongly favored to win, with a prediction of a convincing victory by at least 18.5 points. The under is expected to hit given UAB's offensive struggles and North Texas' defensive strength, despite the high total line.
Predicted Score: North Texas Mean Green 38 – 16 UAB Blazers