Match Analysis: Pisa vs Fiorentina – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-28
• Time: 1:00 PM UTC
• Location: Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Game Overview

This Serie A matchup features Pisa hosting Fiorentina. Pisa has struggled at home so far this season, losing both home games without scoring. Fiorentina has been steady away, with two draws in away matches. Both teams' recent form indicates a tight contest, but Fiorentina holds a slight edge on quality and resilience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pisa has lost four of their last five matches in all competitions and failed to score in their home games this season. Fiorentina has recorded 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five matches but showed defensive solidity on the road.
• Recent head-to-head results have been balanced with Fiorentina slightly favored historically. No recent dominant wins for either side indicate a competitive matchup.
• No key injuries reported for Fiorentina. Pisa's squad depth is limited, though no major absences listed; fitness may be a factor in their offensive struggles.
• Home crowd for Pisa expected to create strong atmosphere which may boost their early aggression. Weather and pitch conditions are normal for late September in Pisa.
• Fiorentina motivated to avoid dropping points away early in the season to maintain their top-flight aspirations. Pisa aims to claim their first home points and end their scoring drought.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Fiorentina: +121, Pisa: +235, Draw: +225	Draw	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Fiorentina -0.25: -112, Pisa +25: -108	Pisa +0.25	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118	Under 2.25	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Draw 46%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Draw at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Draw

Predicted Score: 1-1

Match Analysis: Napoli vs Pisa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-22
• Time: 6:45 PM UTC
• Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy

Game Overview

Napoli, undefeated in Serie A so far this season and playing at home, are overwhelming favorites to continue their perfect start against newly promoted and struggling Pisa, who have scored just one goal in three matches and lost their last game 0-1 to Udinese.

Key Factors to Consider

• Napoli have won all three Serie A matches this season, showing dominant form and a strong motivation to lead the league, while Pisa have managed only one goal in three games and lost their latest match without posing competitive threat.
• Napoli have historically dominated the fixture with Pisa, including a strong home record and recent unbeaten streaks of 9 wins and 2 draws when favored at home in Serie A.
• No significant injuries reported for Napoli that would impact starting lineup; Pisa also lack key absences but have shown limited squad quality and depth.
• Napoli were recently humbled in the Champions League due to a red card disadvantage but this should fuel their motivation in league play. Home crowd at a stadium with 54,726 capacity provides strong support.
• Napoli are aiming to sustain maximum points to establish clear title credentials, while Pisa are focused on damage control and survival in the top flight, showing less attacking ambition.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -410, away: 1100, draw: 475	Napoli	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Napoli -1.5: -125, Pisa +1.5: 105	Napoli -1.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over 2.75: 102, under 2.75: -122	Under 2.75	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Napoli -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.75 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Napoli to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 spread, and the total goals to go under 2.75.

Predicted Score: 2-0

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Sporting Lisbon vs. Moreirense FC Prediction	Sporting Lisbon -2	100	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Napoli vs. Pisa Prediction	Napoli -1.5	-125	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Millwall vs. Watford Prediction	Millwall Win	104	★★★☆☆ 68% (68%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +634

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $146.88

Match Analysis: Pisa vs Udinese – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 1:00 PM UTC
• Location: Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Game Overview

A Serie A clash between bottom-placed Pisa and rising Udinese, with Udinese currently unbeaten and showing stronger form. Pisa secured a draw and a loss in their first two games, while Udinese holds a win and a draw and are noted for their recent away efficiency.

Key Factors to Consider

• Udinese has shown better recent form with a 1-1-0 record, including a notable 2-1 away win against Inter, while Pisa has 0-1-1, having scored just once and conceded in both games so far.
• Recent encounters favor Udinese with multiple 2-1 away victories and several matches featuring both teams scoring.
• No specific injury data is available, but no critical absences reported impacting key players for either team at this stage.
• Pisa faces pressure from poor results early in the season; Udinese's momentum and confidence after upsetting strong opponents is a significant factor.
• Udinese motivated to continue momentum and climb the league table; Pisa motivated to halt the poor start and gain first win, but overall momentum is with Udinese.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pisa: +180, Udinese: +172, Draw: +205	Udinese	★★★☆☆ 61%
Spread	Pisa: -108, Udinese: -112	Pisa +0	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over: +105, Under: -125	Under 2.25 goals	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Udinese 12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Udinese moneyline win, Pisa +0 spread, under 2.25 goals

Predicted Score: 1-2

Match Analysis: Pisa vs AS Roma – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 6:45 PM UTC
• Location: Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Game Overview

AS Roma travel to face Serie A newcomers Pisa at the Arena Garibaldi in a matchup where Roma are strong favorites. Roma have shown consistency on the road and a solid defense, while Pisa are struggling offensively and adjusting to top-flight competition.

Key Factors to Consider

• Roma are in decent form with only one loss in their last ten away Serie A matches and maintain disciplined defense, while Pisa have had trouble scoring, managing just an own goal and a draw in recent matches.
• Limited recent top-flight meetings, but Roma historically dominate matchups owing to their Serie A experience versus Pisa's newcomer status.
• No major injuries reported impacting Roma's starting XI. Pisa have no notable absences but lack depth compared to Roma.
• Match played at Pisa's home ground, but expected to have limited impact given Pisa's inexperience at this level and Roma's superior quality.
• Roma motivated to secure early-season points away from home to establish league position; Pisa eager but likely under pressure to avoid an opening loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	AS Roma: -141, Pisa: 405, Draw: 270	AS Roma	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	AS Roma -0.75: -108, Pisa +75: -112	AS Roma -0.75	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: 100, Under 2.5: -120	Under 2.5	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	AS Roma 11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: AS Roma at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

AS Roma to win on the moneyline, -0.75 spread to Roma, and Under 2.5 goals total

Predicted Score: 0-1

Match Analysis: Atalanta BC vs Pisa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-24
• Time: 6:45 PM UTC
• Location: Gewiss Stadium

Game Overview

Atalanta BC hosts Pisa in the Serie A opener at Gewiss Stadium on August 24, 2025, featuring a newly managed Atalanta under Ivan Juric emphasizing a more defensive style against promoted Pisa struggling to score away.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atalanta, transitioning to Juric's more conservative tactics, have shown defensive solidity but less attacking explosiveness early season; Pisa recently promoted and have scored in only one of their last five away competitive matches, showing offensive struggles.
• Limited recent encounters with Atalanta historically dominating; no notable surprises, Atalanta favored strongly in past meetings.
• Atalanta missing key defenders Sead Kolašinac and Mitchel Bakker; also Ademola Lookman likely absent due to transfer rumors. Pisa's squad health unclear but no major reported absences.
• Home advantage favors Atalanta; new coaching philosophy might impact goal volume and game pace; ambient motivation for Atalanta to start season well to assert Serie A status.
• Atalanta aims to solidify their Serie A standing under new management, motivated to start strongly; Pisa motivated to prove themselves after promotion but likely cautious.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atalanta BC -240, Pisa 640, Draw 379	Atalanta BC	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Atalanta BC -1.25 -115, Pisa +1.25 -105	Atalanta BC -1.25	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.75 -121, Under 2.75 101	Under 2.75	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Atalanta BC 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.75 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Atalanta Moneyline

Predicted Score: 1-0

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Sporting Kansas City Prediction	Seattle Sounders FC Win	-240	★★★★☆ 79% (79%)
Braga vs. AVS Futebol SAD Prediction	Braga Win	-320	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Atalanta BC vs. Pisa Prediction	Atalanta BC Win	-240	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +163

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $52.68