Match Analysis: Sassuolo vs Pisa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia, Italy
Game Overview
Sassuolo hosts Pisa in a Serie A clash at Mapei Stadium. Sassuolo are comfortably mid-table in 8th place while Pisa currently sit near the relegation zone in 16th. Sassuolo have shown more consistency and have the home advantage, whereas Pisa have improved recently, securing their first top-flight away wins in decades and holding a solid unbeaten streak including draws against top teams. The match is expected to be tightly contested with an emphasis on Sassuolo's attacking edge and Pisa's improved resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sassuolo is in better form overall with notable recent wins but are vulnerable at times, with a mixed home record. Pisa have become tougher to beat recently, on a 5-game unbeaten streak with draws against strong teams like AC Milan and Lazio, indicating improving confidence but still lack away winning experience in Serie A.
- Earlier in the season, Pisa won the reverse fixture 3-1, including a brace from Matteo Tramoni, but Sassuolo beat Pisa convincingly in their last home encounter. The rivalry currently favors Sassuolo statistically by recent home results, but Pisa's recent form and past win temper expectations.
- Key players missing or doubtful include Sassuolo's Fisayo Dele-Bashiru (thigh injury), Nicolo Rovella (groin injury, doubtful), Matteo Cancellieri (muscle injury), and Valentin Castellanos (muscle injury). Pisa's lineup looks relatively stable, with no major injuries reported.
- The match is played at Sassuolo's home stadium, giving them the advantage of familiar conditions and home crowd support. Weather or other environmental factors are not reported to have significant impact.
- Sassuolo aims to consolidate their mid-table position and maintain momentum after recent big victories. Pisa, fighting relegation pressure, seek crucial points to survive Serie A and will be motivated to build on their recent unbeaten run and first top-flight away wins in decades.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pisa: 290, Sassuolo: 108, Draw: 215 | Sassuolo win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Pisa +50: -128, Sassuolo -0.5: 108 | Sassuolo -0.5 (Home win by 1 or more goals) | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: 100, Under 2.25: -120 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sassuolo 37% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Sassuolo at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A tightly contested match likely ending in a draw, with Sassuolo slightly favored but Pisa's recent form and resilience suggesting they will gain at least a point.
Predicted Score: 1-1