Match Analysis: AC Milan vs Pisa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-24
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy
Game Overview
AC Milan, currently 1st in Serie A, hosts Pisa, positioned 20th, in a critical league match. Milan shows strong form with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, while Pisa struggles with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses. The game presents a significant gap in quality and motivation between the teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- AC Milan leads Serie A and has a high-scoring offense featuring Christian Pulisic and Rafael LeΓ£o. Pisa, recently promoted, sits at the bottom, showing poor form with no wins and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Historically, AC Milan dominates over Pisa, including a 1990/91 Serie A encounter and several recent fixtures where Milan comfortably won or drew against Pisa. No recent history suggests Pisa can upset this match.
- AC Milanβs Christian Pulisic is sidelined with a hamstring tear, possibly out for a month. Pervis EstupiΓ±Γ‘nβs ankle injury is questionable, likely missing this match. Pisa has no major reported injury concerns.
- Home advantage for AC Milan at San Siro boosts their prospects. Pisa faces a challenging away fixture with travel and atmosphere pressures. Weather and pitch conditions are normal for the time and locale.
- AC Milan aims to maintain the top spot and momentum for the league title, increasing motivation. Pisa battles relegation threats, needing points, but low morale may impact performance negatively.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan: -340, Pisa: 825, Draw: 475 | AC Milan Win | β β β β β 90% |
| Spread | AC Milan -1.5: -120, Pisa +1.5: 100 | AC Milan -1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -115, Under 2.75: -105 | Over 2.75 Goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AC Milan is highly favored to win due to superior squad quality, home advantage, and Pisa's poor form and low confidence. The expected match flow should see Milan control possession and create more scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: 3-0