Match Analysis: Dallas Stars vs Philadelphia Flyers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Game Overview
Dallas Stars, currently with a strong home record and better recent form, face the Philadelphia Flyers who have shown solid away performance but have key defensive injuries.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dallas Stars have a record of 11-4-3 with 7 wins in last 10 games and strong offensive numbers (3.3 goals per game, 28.6% powerplay efficiency) while conceding 2.4 goals per game. Flyers hold a 9-5-3 record, with a solid away record (5-0-0) but limited recent form compared to Dallas.
- Historically, Stars are favored strongly at home and Flyers have struggled in away games against Stars, with Dallas holding an edge in recent matchups.
- Philadelphia Flyers are missing key defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen (triceps injury), affecting their defensive structure, while Dallas has minimal notable injury concerns.
- Dallas benefits playing at home with strong fan support and recent offensive momentum. No significant external distractions reported.
- Dallas Stars seek to maintain their strong home dominance and capitalize on Flyers' defensive absences to secure a critical win for playoff positioning, whereas Flyers aim to extend their unbeaten away streak but with key players sidelined.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars: -230, Philadelphia Flyers: +180 | Dallas Stars | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Dallas Stars -1.5: +112, Philadelphia Flyers +1.5: -141 | Dallas Stars -1.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: -121, Under 5.5: -104 | Over 5.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dallas Stars win straight up on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 spread, and the total goals go over 5.5
Predicted Score: Dallas Stars 4 – Philadelphia Flyers 2