Match Analysis: Dallas Stars vs Philadelphia Flyers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Game Overview
The Dallas Stars host the Philadelphia Flyers in an inter-conference matchup featuring two teams with contrasting momentum. Dallas enters as the strong favorite, riding a four-game winning streak with dominant offensive output, while Philadelphia seeks to stabilize after recent losses. The Stars' explosive offense will test the Flyers' defensive capabilities in this high-stakes regular season contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dallas Stars (11-4-3, 25 points) rank 2nd in the Central Division with impressive recent form, winning their last four games including a dominant 7-0 victory over Montreal. They boast strong offensive statistics with a 20% power play percentage and 88.89% penalty kill efficiency. Philadelphia Flyers (8-5-3, 19 points) sit 6th in the Metropolitan Division with inconsistent play, dropping their last two games including a 2-1 overtime loss to Edmonton. The Flyers show 12.3% shooting efficiency and rank 5th in faceoff win percentage at 53.6%, indicating defensive structure but offensive struggles.
- In their previous matchup on March 22, 2025, Dallas defeated Philadelphia 3-2, demonstrating their ability to contain the Flyers' scoring. This history suggests Dallas possesses tactical advantages against Philadelphia's particular style of play.
- Samuel Ersson (PHI #33 Goaltender) status requires monitoring. Matvei Michkov (PHI #39 RW) is active after scoring a power-play goal in the recent overtime loss. Radek Faksa (DAL #12 C) showed strong form with three assists in the 7-0 victory over Montreal.
- The game is broadcast on ESPN+ and NBCS-PH, with Dallas playing at home where they maintain a 5-3-1 record. Philadelphia faces the challenge of playing on the road after back-to-back losses, which historically affects team confidence and performance metrics.
- Dallas seeks to extend their winning streak and solidify their position in the Central Division playoff race. Philadelphia needs a confidence-building win to reverse their recent downward trajectory and prove their defensive structure can withstand high-powered offenses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars: -230 | Philadelphia Flyers: +180 | Dallas Stars Win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Dallas Stars -1.5 (112) | Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 (-141) | Dallas Stars -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 (-121) | Under 5.5 (-104) | Over 5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 5.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 5.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dallas Stars are heavily favored and should win this matchup convincingly. The combination of their four-game winning streak, dominant recent scoring (7-0 over Montreal), superior penalty discipline, and home-ice advantage positions them to control the game. Philadelphia's recent losses and mid-road record suggest they lack the offensive firepower to match Dallas's current form. Expect Dallas to win by 2-3 goals.
Predicted Score: Dallas Stars 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2