Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 4:41 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the final week of the MLB regular season. The Reds (80-78) hold a moderate winning record and have home field advantage, while the Pirates (69-89) are last in the NL Central but are riding a four-game winning streak. The Pirates' starter, Braxton Ashcraft, has a strong 2.62 ERA but limited recent innings, while the Redsβ Nick Lodolo has a solid 3.44 ERA and a positive home record.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Reds have an 80-78 record with solid home performance (44-36), the Pirates are 69-89 overall and 25-52 on the road. Pittsburgh is on a 4-game winning streak lately, but overall has a weaker offense with a .231 batting average. Cincinnatiβs offense is more consistent and stronger at home.
- Pirates won the first two games of this series narrowly (4-2, 4-3 in 11 innings), showing competitive edge. Historically, Reds have had an upper hand at home against the Pirates but recent matchups show close contests.
- No major injuries affecting starting pitchers or key hitters reported for either team, making both lineups relatively intact.
- The game is at Great American Ball Park, a hitter-friendly park which may lift scoring totals. Weather conditions are typical with no noted adverse effects on pitching or hitting.
- Reds are fighting to maintain a winning record and possibly improve playoff contention standing. Pirates, effectively eliminated, may be less motivated with their losing record but currently confident with recent wins.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -164, Pittsburgh Pirates: 138 | Cincinnati Reds | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds -1.5: 134, Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -162 | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8: -118, Under 8: -104 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cincinnati Reds to win outright (Moneyline), with a careful approach to run line and total given pitching matchup and recent tight games.
Predicted Score: Reds 4 – Pirates 2