Match Analysis: Dolphins vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 4:00 AM UTC
- Location: Kayo Stadium
Game Overview
The Dolphins face the Canberra Raiders in a crucial NRL Round 27 match with the Dolphins keen to secure a strong finals position and the Raiders resting key players after securing the minor premiership.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dolphins have the highest scoring attack in the NRL and have snapped a three-game losing streak with a recent win, boosted by the return of Herbie Farnworth. In contrast, the Raiders, already minor premiers, have rested many stars, fielding largely a second-string lineup.
- Recent simulations give the Dolphins a 69% chance to win, supported by consistent favorite betting odds around $1.25 to $1.26 for the Dolphins, indicating confidence in their winning likelihood.
- The Raiders have multiple key players rested, weakening their typical starting lineup. The Dolphins are relatively healthy with important returns such as Herbie Farnworth.
- Playing at home in Kayo Stadium benefits the Dolphins. The timing provides them rest advantage while Canberra is focusing on preservation of players for finals.
- The Dolphins have a high motivation to win to solidify finals hopes. The Raiders, having already secured minor premiership, are less motivated and prioritizing player rest.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -420, away: 315, draw: 2500 | Dolphins | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | home: -12.5 -115, away: +12.5 -115 | Dolphins -12.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | over: 53.5 -115, under: 53.5 -115 | Over 53.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Dolphins -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 53.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 53.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dolphins to win outright
Predicted Score: Dolphins 30 – Canberra Raiders 16