Match Analysis: Swansea City vs Derby County – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Swansea.com Stadium
Game Overview
The match features Swansea City hosting Derby County in the EFL Championship. Swansea City currently show stronger recent form and home advantage, while Derby County have struggled slightly away with fewer points and a weaker goal difference.
Key Factors to Consider
- Swansea have a better recent record with wins in head-to-head matches against Derby in the 2024/25 season, including a 2-1 away win and a 1-0 home win. Swansea sit higher in the league standings with more points and a better goal difference. Derby have a lower points tally and a notably worse defensive record.
- In the last 5 meetings, Swansea won 2, Derby won 2, and there was 1 draw. Matches have averaged 0.8 goals per match for Swansea and 2.6 goals conceded per match, with 80% of matches going over total goal expectations based on Asian Handicap results.
- Current specific injury details for either squad are not explicitly available from the data. No major absences reported that would significantly impact starting lineups.
- The match is played at Swansea.com Stadium, giving Swansea home advantage. Current season dynamics and fan support favor Swansea. Weather or pitch conditions are not cited as factors.
- Swansea are motivated to maintain their position with solid points advantage and home support, while Derby seeks to improve on a mixed away form and recover ground in the standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Derby County: 245, Swansea City: 109, Draw: 215 | Swansea City win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Derby County: 25 100, Swansea City: -0.25 -120 | Swansea City -0.25 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2 -128, Under: 2 108 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Swansea City 36% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Swansea City at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Swansea City are favored to win due to stronger recent form, home advantage, and superior league standing, but the match could be competitive given Derby's history of close contests.
Predicted Score: 1-0