Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium
Game Overview
The New Mexico State Aggies host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in Week 2 of the 2025 NCAA football season. Both teams enter 1-0, but Tulsa is a slight favorite as they have shown stronger recent form and more consistent defensive performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tulsaβs offense is balanced with QB Kirk Francis showing efficiency (64.5% completion, 218 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) complemented by a strong rushing attack (Dominic Richardson 142 yards, 1 TD). Defensively, Tulsa allows only 7 points and 260 yards/game. New Mexico State has struggled against the spread and not yet hit totals over in recent matches.
- Recent head-to-head matchups and betting trends favor Tulsa, who have covered all games as favorites of 5.5 points or more, while New Mexico State has not covered any spread this season.
- No critical injury updates reported for key offensive or defensive starters on either side, allowing full-strength lineups expected.
- The game is at Aggie Memorial Stadium (home for New Mexico State) but Tulsaβs defensive strength and motivation to maintain winning streak against spread offsets home-field advantage.
- Tulsa aims to build on a snapped losing streak and assert dominance early in the season. New Mexico State tries to capitalize on home advantage but lacks recent success trends.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New Mexico State +160, Tulsa -192 | Tulsa | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | New Mexico State +4.5 -110, Tulsa -4.5 -110 | Tulsa -4.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Over/under | Over 51.5 -115, Under 51.5 -105 | Under 51.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 51.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tulsa Golden Hurricane to win straight up on the moneyline, cover the 4.5 point spread, and the game to stay under the total points line.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 24 – New Mexico State 17