Match Analysis: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-21
- Time: 9:50 AM UTC
- Location: Stadium Australia
Game Overview
The match features the South Sydney Rabbitohs hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons in Round 25 of the NRL season, with the Dragons currently favored to win based on recent analytics and form.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dragons have shown stronger recent form statistically, with a predictive model assigning them a 63% chance to win. The Rabbitohs have struggled against them historically and in recent matches.
- The Dragons hold a dominant head-to-head record recently, winning 68% of the last 34 encounters. Notably, the Dragons took the previous close match 25-24 in March 2025.
- No major injury updates reported for either side that would significantly alter lineup strength or tactics.
- The game is at Stadium Australia, which slightly favors the home Rabbitohs but their home advantage is not enough to overcome Dragons' current momentum.
- Both teams are motivated for late-season wins; however, the Dragons appear more driven to secure a playoff position, impacting their likely intensity and discipline.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | South Sydney Rabbitohs +104, St George Illawarra Dragons -120, Draw +2000 | St George Illawarra Dragons | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | South Sydney Rabbitohs +1.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons -1.5 -115 | St George Illawarra Dragons -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 44.5 -110, Under 44.5 -120 | Over 44.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St George Illawarra Dragons 36% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 44.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St George Illawarra Dragons to win (moneyline), cover -1.5 spread, and over 44.5 total points
Predicted Score: Dragons 26 - Rabbitohs 20
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