Match Analysis: D.C. United vs Nashville SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: D.C. United Home Stadium
Game Overview
D.C. United will host Nashville SC in an MLS match. Nashville SC currently holds a stronger form and higher league position compared to D.C. United. Historically, Nashville SC has a clear edge in head-to-head matchups, winning 5 out of 10 matches against D.C. United who have won 2, with 3 draws. Nashville SC also boasts better recent form and goal-scoring stats, while D.C. United has struggled more defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC ranks 3rd in the league, showing strong recent performance with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.6 goals scored per game and 1 goal conceded. D.C. United ranks 12th, with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 as well, but with a lower scoring average (0.8 goals) and conceding more (1.2 goals). Nashville SC has an 80% Asian Handicap win rate in the last encounters, reflecting stronger performance against D.C. United.
- In the last 10 direct matches, Nashville SC leads with 5 wins to D.C. United's 2, with 3 draws. The average goals per match in these fixtures is around 3.1, favoring an open game. Nashville SC has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head games, indicating dominant recent matchups.
- Current injury data is not specified in the sources, so no significant absences reported for either side that might impact the match outcome.
- D.C. United will have home advantage; however, Nashville SC’s better form and league standing offset the home field benefit. Weather and pitch conditions are not stated, presumed neutral.
- Nashville SC, sitting higher in the league, will be motivated to maintain their position and capitalize on their superior form. D.C. United aims to leverage home advantage to improve their league standing, adding competitive incentive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | D.C. United: 240, Nashville SC: 105, Draw: 270 | Nashville SC to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | D.C. United: 25 @ 105, Nashville SC: -0.25 @ -125 | Nashville SC -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.75: -112, Under 2.75: -108 | Over 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Nashville SC 19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Nashville SC at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Nashville SC's superior form, stronger head-to-head record, and better offensive stats, they are favored to win or at least secure a draw. D.C. United’s home advantage and motivation make a close match likely, but Nashville’s consistent performance suggests they will probably edge out the victory.
Predicted Score: Nashville SC 2 – 1 D.C. United