Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-11
- Time: 5:11 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds (35-33, 4th NL Central) face the Cleveland Guardians (34-32, 3rd AL Central) in the series finale at Progressive Field. The Reds are led by pitcher Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.21 ERA, 75.2 IP, 64 K), while the Guardians will start Logan Allen (3-4, 4.42 ERA, 55.0 IP, 40 K). Both teams are tightly matched with the Reds slightly ahead in record and recent form (W5) versus the Guardians (L2), though the game could be a pitcher's duel with potential for low scoring given the starters' numbers.[4][5][3]
Key Factors to Consider
- Cincinnati is 6-4 in their last 10 games and on a 5-game winning streak, while Cleveland is 4-6 in their last 10 and on a 2-game losing streak. The Reds have a slightly better offense (4.5 runs per game vs. 3.8 for Cleveland) and pitching staff (3.66 ERA vs. 3.92 ERA).[5][4][3]
- The Reds won the previous game in this series 1-0, indicating a pitching-dominated matchup with minimal scoring.[4][5]
- No major injuries reported for this specific game—only updates from league-wide injuries not directly affecting these rosters for today's game.[5]
- Normal weather expected at Progressive Field. No unusual external factors or venue impacts reported.
- The Reds aim to extend their winning streak and continue momentum, while the Guardians seek to avoid a sweep and bounce back at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -102, Cleveland Guardians: -116 | Cleveland Guardians (slight home edge according to odds, but Reds have momentum) | 56% Guardians, 44% Reds |
Spread | Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (152), Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (more likely to cover or win by less than 2) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-106), Under 8.5 (-114) | Under 8.5 (low scoring expected, previous game 1-0, strong pitching matchup) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Cincinnati Reds are favored by current odds and recent form, with a slight edge in pitching and momentum. However, given the previous 1-0 outcome and both teams’ reliance on their starters, a low-scoring game is likely, and the difference could be minimal.
Predicted Score: Cleveland Guardians 3, Cincinnati Reds 2