Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Johnny 'Red' Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Game Overview

This CUSA Conference matchup features two struggling FBS programs competing in their penultimate regular season game. Middle Tennessee (1-9, 0-6 CUSA) hosts Sam Houston (2-8, 1-5 CUSA) in a critical contest for both teams seeking to build momentum heading into the final week. Sam Houston enters the game riding a three-game winning streak (defeating Oregon State 21-17 and Delaware 26-23), while Middle Tennessee is seeking to end a prolonged losing streak. The oddsmakers favor Middle Tennessee at home despite comparable overall records, suggesting confidence in MTSU's ability to perform in their home stadium.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sam Houston has demonstrated significant momentum in recent weeks with consecutive wins, showcasing improved turnover management with a +5 turnover margin in their last two victories. However, their overall season record of 2-8 reflects significant inconsistency. Middle Tennessee's 1-9 record is marginally worse, with their single conference win being against Jacksonville State (24-21). Both teams rank among the conference's weakest performers this season. Sam Houston has shown resilience against ranked opponents, losing to #8 Texas 55-0, while Middle Tennessee's losses have been competitive (Wisconsin 42-10, Marshall 42-28, Delaware 31-28). Sam Houston's three November wins represent a 7-2 November record across three FBS seasons, indicating the Bearkats perform better in late-season games.
• This is only the fourth meeting between these programs, with Sam Houston leading the all-time series 2-1. Their most recent matchup occurred in 2023 when Sam Houston overcame a fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Middle Tennessee 23-20. This historical advantage slightly favors Sam Houston, though the series is competitive.
• No specific injury information is available in the provided data for either team. This represents a significant analytical gap, as injuries to key players could substantially impact team performance.
• Sam Houston is completing their final road trip of the 2025 season, which may affect player fatigue and focus. Middle Tennessee plays at home, a traditional advantage in college football. Neither team has postseason implications at this stage, potentially reducing motivation compared to playoff-contending programs. The game time has multiple references (3 PM, 8 PM EST), suggesting possible scheduling adjustments.
• Sam Houston is seeking a third consecutive win to build momentum and finish the season strong, which aligns with their historical November success. Middle Tennessee is searching for a second conference win and first home conference victory to salvage their season. Both teams are essentially playing for pride and program positioning at this stage of the season.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Despite oddsmakers favoring Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston's recent form and historical advantage in the series present compelling value. The Bearkats' three-game winning streak, improved turnover management, and strong November track record (7-2 over three seasons) suggest they are the more confident team entering this matchup. However, Middle Tennessee's home-field advantage and slightly better recent competitive losses temper this assessment. The predictive model slightly favors Sam Houston to cover the spread given their momentum and series history, though Middle Tennessee remains a viable home underdog play.

Predicted Score: Middle Tennessee 27, Sam Houston 24

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Match Analysis: Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Delaware Blue Hens – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, Texas

Game Overview

The game features the Delaware Blue Hens (5-4 overall, 3-3 in CUSA) visiting the struggling Sam Houston State Bearkats (1-8 overall, 0-5 in CUSA) at Shell Energy Stadium. Delaware is coming off a recent close victory over Louisiana Tech (25-24), showing some resilience, while Sam Houston earned a surprising win against Oregon State (21-17) after a long losing streak. Delaware is favored by 9.5 points with an over/under set at 56.5 points.

Key Factors to Consider

• Delaware holds a better record (5-4) versus Sam Houston's poor 1-8, but the Bearkats shocked with their last game win. Sam Houston's season has been characterized by heavy losses, except for the upset over Oregon State. Delaware has a moderate 3-6-0 record ATS, whereas Sam Houston is 2-7-0 ATS this season.
• There is no recently available detailed historic head-to-head data for this matchup in the given results, likely due to conference realignment or few recent matchups.
• Current specific injury information is not provided in the corpus, so no injury impacts can be confirmed.
• Home field advantage at Shell Energy Stadium favors Sam Houston, but Delaware's stronger recent form and betting odds suggest they are well positioned. Weather and other extrinsic factors are unknown.
• Delaware seeks to maintain winning momentum to solidify their bowl eligibility, while Sam Houston looks to salvage their difficult season with a home upset.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Delaware is favored to win by about 9.5 points, with a reasonable expectation for a moderately high scoring game given the 56.5 over/under line. Delaware's stronger form and higher winning probabilities indicate confidence in their victory despite playing away.

Predicted Score: Delaware Blue Hens 33 – Sam Houston State Bearkats 24

Match Analysis: Oregon State Beavers vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-09
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Oregon

Game Overview

The Oregon State Beavers (2-7) host the Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-8) in a College Football game where the Beavers are overwhelming favorites. Oregon State has had a challenging season but remains significantly stronger than the Bearkats, who have yet to secure a win. The contest has a heavy spread, reflecting the disparity between the teams.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oregon State has averaged 19.9 points per game while allowing 29.9, showing issues on both offense and defense. Sam Houston State is winless at 0-8, highlighting struggles in all facets with weaker overall statistics. Oregon State’s offense ranks low nationally and on defense is porous against passing yards allowed. Sam Houston State has yet to find scoring consistency or defensive resilience.
• There is limited recent head-to-head data between these programs. This matchup is a rare contest between a Power 5 (Pac-12) team and a Group of 5 team with a winless record. Historical dominance strongly favors Oregon State in such mismatches.
• Current data do not list significant injuries for either team but key player availability for Oregon State could influence an already lopsided matchup. No major injuries reported to affect the odds materially.
• Weather at Reser Stadium on game day is expected to be clear with mild temperatures (~51°F) and no rain, which should favor offensive execution. Home-field advantage is notable for Oregon State.
• Oregon State is motivated to improve their record late in the season against an easy opponent, aiming for momentum. Sam Houston State faces a demoralizing season start (0-8), which likely affects their competitive drive.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Oregon State is heavily favored to win both outright and cover the large 20.5-point spread, given their comparative talent, home advantage, and Sam Houston's winless status. The game is expected to be high scoring, approaching the 52.5 points total line.

Predicted Score: Oregon State Beavers 38 – Sam Houston State Bearkats 14

Match Analysis: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-31
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Joe Aillet Stadium (Ruston, Louisiana)

Game Overview

This is a Conference USA matchup featuring Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2 CUSA) hosting the winless Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-7, 0-4 CUSA) on Homecoming weekend for the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is coming off a narrow OT loss to Western Kentucky, while Sam Houston was soundly defeated by UTEP. The game is nationally televised on CBS Sports Network[1][3][4].

Key Factors to Consider

• Louisiana Tech has shown moderate success this season, compiling four wins with a balanced offense and solid defense. Their losses have come against strong opponents, but recent close games indicate possible inconsistency. Sam Houston remains winless, struggling on both sides of the ball, with an average scoring margin of -22.6 points per game. Their defense particularly has been a liability, allowing 35.4 points per game while the offense averages just 12.7 points[1][3].
• There is limited recent head-to-head history between these programs, as Sam Houston is new to FBS play and Conference USA. No direct historic series data is highlighted in the available search results[2].
• No specific injury updates for key players are provided in the available data; however, the lack of depth and experience for Sam Houston may be compounded by any absences. Louisiana Tech’s health appears steady, but missing starters could impact their ability to cover the large spread.
• The game coincides with Louisiana Tech’s 100th Homecoming and a Hall of Fame weekend, likely boosting home crowd energy and motivation[4]. Sam Houston’s status as a winless squad could affect morale, especially in a road environment.
• Louisiana Tech is motivated to bounce back from a tough loss and capitalize on Homecoming momentum. A win keeps them in the hunt for a bowl game. Sam Houston is desperate for its first FBS victory, but their struggles across the board temper expectations[1][3].

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Louisiana Tech is a heavy favorite for good reason, given the glaring talent and experience gap. Sam Houston’s offensive and defensive struggles are unlikely to abate against a competent Bulldogs squad, especially at home. The prediction model cited projects a 39-13 Louisiana Tech victory[1]. The game is expected to be moderately high-scoring, with Louisiana Tech’s offense controlling tempo and Sam Houston providing just enough resistance to push the score over the total.

Predicted Score: Louisiana Tech 39, Sam Houston State 13

Match Analysis: Sam Houston State Bearkats vs UTEP Miners – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-15
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Sam Houston State Home Stadium (Huntsville, Texas – inferred)

Game Overview

The NCAA football match between Sam Houston State Bearkats and UTEP Miners on October 15, 2025, features two teams with a recent history of competitive games. Sam Houston State won the last encounter convincingly, and both teams have shown balanced scoring capabilities, but UTEP appears favored based on current betting odds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sam Houston State enters with a recent record of 4 wins and 1 loss, averaging 18.8 points per game while allowing 17 points defensively. UTEP has won 3 and lost 2 in its last five games, scoring 21.6 PPG but conceding 32 PPG, indicating a stronger offense but a vulnerable defense. Both teams' performance trends suggest a moderately high-scoring game.
• Historically, UTEP has a 2-0 win record against Sam Houston State since 2003 in football, with the most recent game ending 41-21 in favor of Sam Houston State on October 3, 2024. The two teams split their last two matchups, reflecting a competitive rivalry with UTEP's historical advantage but recent Sam Houston State momentum.
• No specific injury reports are available from the current data; thus no significant injury impact is factored into this prediction.
• The game is at Sam Houston State's home field, giving them a home advantage. No notable weather or travel complications are reported.
• Both teams have strong motivations to win; however, Sam Houston State aims to capitalize on home advantage to rebound from a prior loss to UTEP, while UTEP seeks to assert their recent dominance and improve their conference standing.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Despite UTEP being slight favorites on the moneyline, the home advantage and recent decisive win suggest a close game where Sam Houston State could cover the spread. Expect a competitive, moderately high-scoring contest leaning slightly towards UTEP for outright win but Sam Houston State strong on the spread.

Predicted Score: Sam Houston State Bearkats 24 – 27 UTEP Miners

Match Analysis: Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-09
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Sam Houston State Home Stadium

Game Overview

The upcoming American college football game features Sam Houston State Bearkats hosting the Jacksonville State Gamecocks. Jacksonville State enters with a 2-3 overall record but 1-0 in conference play, while Sam Houston State is struggling at 0-5 overall and 0-2 in conference. Jacksonville State is favored due to their superior recent performance and conference standing.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sam Houston State has not won this season and is 0-5 overall, including 0-2 in Conference USA. Jacksonville State has a 2-3 overall record with a better conference start at 1-0, indicating stronger and more consistent play.
• No recent head-to-head results are clearly provided, but Jacksonville State's favored status and better conference record imply dominance in past or similar matchups.
• No specific injury data is available for either team in the current information, suggesting no major absences reported.
• The game is at Sam Houston State's home venue, which could slightly benefit them, but their poor season form and Jacksonville State's momentum outweigh this advantage.
• Jacksonville State's motivation is likely high to maintain a positive conference record, while Sam Houston, struggling to find any wins, is likely under pressure to improve but may be demoralized.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Jacksonville State Gamecocks are predicted to win this match confidently, covering the 7.5-point spread. The total points are likely to exceed the 55.5 line, as Jacksonville State's offense is expected to outperform Sam Houston's defense significantly.

Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 35 – Sam Houston State 17

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Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-02
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, New Mexico

Game Overview

The New Mexico State Aggies (2-2) host the Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4) in a Conference USA matchup. The Bearkats come off a heavy 55-0 loss to Texas, while the Aggies recently lost 38-20 to New Mexico. Sam Houston is favored by about 2.5 points with an over/under around 52.5-53.5 points, suggesting expectation of a moderately high scoring game. The matchup features a struggling Sam Houston team facing a New Mexico State squad with mixed results on home turf.

Key Factors to Consider

• New Mexico State holds a .500 record at 2-2 with competitive scoring but recently losing by 18 points. Sam Houston has struggled significantly, standing at 0-4 with a demoralizing 55-0 blowout loss in their last game, indicating offensive and defensive challenges.
• The teams have met once this season and possibly once last season as conference rivals, with recent H2H results favoring New Mexico State. Sam Houston ranks 4th and New Mexico State 9th in Conference USA metrics, but Sam Houston's recent form is poor.
• No explicit current injury reports available from the data; assume no major injury changes for either team that would impact starter availability drastically.
• The game is played at New Mexico State's home stadium, which could provide a home field advantage. Weather and other conditions are not specified. The game is broadcast on CBS Sports Network, indicating decent visibility but no unusual external pressures noted.
• New Mexico State likely motivated to improve to 3-2 and leverage home advantage. Sam Houston, winless thus far, is under pressure to avoid a 0-5 start and salvage their season momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Despite Sam Houston being the betting favorite, the New Mexico State Aggies have shown more resilience and home advantage. Expect a close game with New Mexico State potentially covering the spread or even winning outright underdog moneyline value. The high recent defeat for Sam Houston lowers confidence in their ability to dominate.

Predicted Score: Sam Houston State Bearkats 24 – New Mexico State Aggies 21

Match Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-20
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas

Game Overview

The Texas Longhorns, ranked No. 7 and holding a 2-1 record, face the Sam Houston State Bearkats, currently winless at 0-3, in a matchup heavily favoring Texas. The Longhorns recently defeated UTEP 27-10, while the Bearkats lost 37-20 to Hawaii. Texas is a dominant favorite both on the moneyline and the spread, with a total points line set at 51.5.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas exhibits strong form with a top-10 ranking and a solid recent win, reflecting offensive and defensive efficiency. Sam Houston State has struggled offensively and defensively, losing all three games so far, highlighting a significant performance gap.
• There is limited historical head-to-head data between these two teams as they belong to different competitive tiers, but Texas has consistently dominated any encounter due to size, talent, and program strength advantages.
• Sam Houston State's Hunter Watson recent return is noted as a boost; no major injuries reported for Texas, maintaining full strength and depth advantages.
• The game is played at Texas home stadium, giving the Longhorns a strong home-field edge supported by a large, partisan crowd. Weather conditions are typical for Austin in late September, expected to be clear and not adversely affecting play.
• Texas aims to preserve momentum and national ranking early in the season, while Sam Houston State seeks to avoid a winless start and gain confidence. Motivation heavily favors Texas due to ranking stakes and program prestige.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas Longhorns are projected to win convincingly, covering the large point spread, with a strong likelihood of the game total staying around the established 51.5 points line due to Texas' balanced offense and defense.

Predicted Score: Texas Longhorns 41 – Sam Houston State 11