Match Analysis: Newcastle United vs Everton – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-25
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England
Game Overview
Newcastle United hosts Everton at St James' Park on the final day of the Premier League season. Newcastle, currently 4th in the table, require a win to secure UEFA Champions League qualification. Everton, placed 13th, have had a decent second half of the season under David Moyes but are not in contention for European spots. The match is crucial for Newcastle’s top-five ambitions and Champions League qualification hopes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Newcastle United has won their final league game in 8 of the last 10 seasons. They have shown strong recent form, including a 2-0 win over Chelsea and a draw with Brighton. Everton has improved since Moyes’ first Premier League victory in January 19 and picked up 28 points thereafter, making them a tougher opponent than earlier in the season.
- Pre-match simulations by Opta give Newcastle a 67.5% chance of winning versus Everton. Historically, Newcastle has had upper hand in recent matches this season and overall in the league.
- No specific injury updates available from the search results. It can be inferred that both teams are likely to field strongest available squads given the importance of the fixture.
- The match is played at Newcastle’s home ground, which gives them a strong home advantage. Weather or other external conditions are not explicitly mentioned.
- Newcastle is highly motivated, needing a win to guarantee Champions League football next season. Everton, mid-table and safe, lack direct stakes but may look to spoil Newcastle’s ambitions.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Everton: 710, Newcastle United: -319, Draw: 440 | Newcastle United win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Everton: 1.5 -114, Newcastle United: -1.5 -117 | Newcastle United -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 3.5: 126, Under 3.5: -169 | Under 3.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Newcastle United -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 -5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A Newcastle United victory is the most probable outcome considering their form, motivation, and simulations.
Predicted Score: 2-0