Match Analysis: New England Revolution vs Toronto FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Game Overview
This MLS match features New England Revolution hosting Toronto FC at Gillette Stadium. New England Revolution have had mixed recent form, holding 8-14-7 with playoff elimination possible soon. Toronto FC has been a challenging opponent historically, especially at Gillette Stadium where New England's recent home record against Toronto is weaker. The match carries additional significance with the Revolution Foundation Drive and Childhood Cancer Awareness events enhancing the atmosphere.
Key Factors to Consider
- New England Revolution have a home record of 1-3-2 against Toronto FC in the last six meetings. Earlier this year they won 2-0 in Toronto. New England has shown capability to score early but recently lost a close 3-2 match to Chicago Fire after nearly erasing a large deficit. Toronto FC currently sit lower in the standings but have been competitive on the road.
- Recent meetings have been competitive: 4 wins for New England Revolution, 2 for Toronto FC and 5 draws in their MLS encounters. The last meeting ended 3-3. The average goals in their encounters are around 2.5, with a balanced possession and shot distribution. Home advantage has not been strongly decisive historically.
- No specific injury updates disclosed in available information, but lineups indicate full squads from both sides. No key absences noted which could severely impact the match dynamics.
- National Childhood Cancer Awareness Month and Revolution Foundation initiatives create a motivated home crowd environment. Weather or other disruptive external factors have not been reported.
- New England Revolution are fighting to avoid playoff elimination, enhancing their urgency. Toronto FC will aim to capitalize and improve their standings, likely to approach the match with a tactical defensive mindset given New Englandβs urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New England Revolution: -130, Toronto FC: 310, Draw: 300 | New England Revolution | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | New England Revolution: -0.5 -135, Toronto FC: +50 102 | New England Revolution -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -156, Under 2.5: 117 | Under 2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New England Revolution 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 52% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 52% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New England Revolution to win narrowly, leveraging home support and motivation to avoid elimination, though a draw is plausible given recent balanced encounters.
Predicted Score: 2-1