Match Analysis: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 12:41 AM UTC
- Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Game Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cincinnati Reds in the final game of their three-game series. The Dodgers lead the series 2-0 and aim to complete a sweep against a Reds team fighting for a Wild Card spot. Shohei Ohtani starts for the Dodgers, returning from injury, while Nick Lodolo is back for the Reds. The Dodgers are strong favorites home and have had good recent form, while the Reds have struggled as road underdogs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dodgers hold a 76-57 overall record, strong home form at 43-24, and have won 4 of their last 5 games. The Reds are 68-65 overall, struggling on the road and winless as a +172+ underdog this season in that spot. Dodgers pitching ERA is 4.10, Reds slightly weaker. Dodgers offense led by Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.
- Dodgers have a 5-1 recent record against the Reds, including 5 straight wins at home. Under has hit in 7 of last 9 head-to-head games, indicating a trend for lower-scoring affairs.
- Shohei Ohtani returning to start after injury; Reds starter Nick Lodolo also just returning from injury. Dodgers have no significant injuries impacting key starters. Reds have struggled recently with pitching depth.
- Game played at Dodger Stadium which heavily favors Dodgers due to altitude, fan support, and pitching-friendly park dimensions.
- Dodgers try to sweep and maintain momentum in division race; Reds fight for Wild Card with desperation to avoid 0-3 series loss.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Dodgers -205, Reds +172 | Los Angeles Dodgers | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Dodgers -1.5 -105, Reds +1.5 -114 | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -110, Under 8.5 -110 | Under 8.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Los Angeles Dodgers -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Los Angeles Dodgers to win outright (Moneyline), cover the -1.5 run spread, and game to go under 8.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 5 – Reds 2