Match Analysis: North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: DATCU Stadium, Denton, Texas
Game Overview
The North Texas Mean Green (5-1) host the UTSA Roadrunners (3-3) in an American Athletic Conference matchup. North Texas enters as the slight favorite given their superior record, offensive firepower, and recent form. UTSA has shown resilience with three wins in their last four games and will look to upset the Mean Green on the road. Both teams have displayed potent offenses but somewhat vulnerable defenses, suggesting a potentially high-scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas boasts a 5-1 record and ranks 6th nationally in scoring offense with 43.3 points per game, supported by 268.2 passing and 166.5 rushing yards per game. Defensively, they allow 27.2 points per game. UTSA is 3-3, scoring 34.5 points per game with 214.2 passing and 180 rushing yards, while allowing 26.8 points per game. North Texas has a home record of 3-1 with strong recent performances, while UTSA is on a positive streak with three wins in four games.
- Current season meeting; historical detailed matchup data not explicitly provided. Both compete in the AAC with similar conference records (1-1). North Texas has been more dominant this season, which factors into current betting lines favoring them by 3.5 points and on the moneyline.
- No specific injury reports available from current data sources. No notable injuries reported for either team that would significantly impact the upcoming game.
- The game is held at DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas, giving North Texas home-field advantage. Weather or other external conditions are not noted as impactful. Betting market favors North Texas moderately on points and moneyline. The over/under at 67.5 indicates expectations of a high-scoring game.
- North Texas aims to maintain their strong season standing (5-1) and solidify positioning in the conference, especially after a recent heavy loss. UTSA with a middling 3-3 record, motivated to improve standing and secure a key conference road win, is coming off a positive run, increasing their confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green: -176, UTSA Roadrunners: +148 | North Texas Mean Green to win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green: -3.5 -115, UTSA Roadrunners: +3.5 -105 | North Texas Mean Green to cover the -3.5 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 67.5 -110, Under: 67.5 -110 | Over 67.5 total points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 67.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 67.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas Mean Green are favored to win, leveraging their superior offense and home advantage. Expect a close but high-scoring game with North Texas narrowly covering the 3.5 point spread.
Predicted Score: North Texas Mean Green 38 – 31 UTSA Roadrunners