Match Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs UCLA Bruins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Game Overview
The Michigan State Spartans (3-2) host the UCLA Bruins (1-4) in a Big Ten Conference matchup. Michigan State is an 8.5-point favorite with a total over/under set at 55.5 points. Michigan State comes off a loss to Nebraska while UCLA recently upset Penn State, showing some late momentum despite their poor record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michigan State holds a 3-2 record with a recent loss to Nebraska (27-38), showing vulnerability on defense. UCLA is struggling at 1-4 but demonstrated offensive firepower in their 42-37 win over Penn State. Michigan State's home field advantage and better conference standing (7th vs. UCLA 5th) are notable.
- The series between Michigan State and UCLA is tied 3-3 historically, with Michigan State winning the first three games and UCLA winning the last three. The last meeting in 1974 was a decisive 56-14 UCLA victory. Michigan State has not beaten UCLA since the mid-1960s historically, but recent modern data suggest a more balanced matchup. Home/away splits favor Michigan State at home with a 1-1 record in the series.
- No specific injuries reported in the available data for either team's key players as of current information.
- Michigan State benefits from hosting the game at Spartan Stadium, with expected typical fall weather conditions in East Lansing that could favor the home team. No notable external disruptions like travel issues or weather extremes reported.
- Michigan State looks to improve their conference record and capitalize on home advantage to halt UCLA's recent upset momentum. UCLA aims to build on their recent win versus a top-tier opponent and overcome their underdog status in a tough Big Ten environment.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans: -330, UCLA Bruins: 265 | Michigan State Spartans | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans: -8.5 -110, UCLA Bruins: 8.5 -110 | Michigan State Spartans -8.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 55.5 -110, Under: 55.5 -110 | Under 55.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 55.5 24% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michigan State is favored to win both straight-up and against the spread due to superior overall team performance, home advantage, and stronger conference standing despite UCLA's recent upset win.
Predicted Score: Michigan State Spartans 30 – UCLA Bruins 17