Match Analysis: UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alamodome
Game Overview
The UTSA Roadrunners host the Rice Owls in a pivotal American Conference matchup. UTSA has a strong home advantage with a historic 22 consecutive home wins against conference opponents, while Rice aims to rebound after recent losses and struggles on the road at the Alamodome.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rice holds a 3-3 season record with key offensive contributors including QB Chase Jenkins (520 passing yards, 4 TDs, 268 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs) and a solid rushing attack led by Quinton Jackson and Daelen Alexander. Defensively, Rice has recorded 15 sacks and 3 interceptions but has lost their last five games at this venue. UTSA is 2-3 with a dominant home record in conference play, showcasing a tougher defense and effective offense, though specific stats for this season are less detailed in the data.
- Historically, UTSA dominates this matchup at home against Rice, boasting a 22-game home winning streak against conference foes. Rice has not won in its last five attempts at the Alamodome.
- Current data did not specify notable injuries affecting either team for this game.
- The match is at the Alamodome, favoring UTSA strongly. The crowd support and home environment contribute to UTSA's betting edge. Weather is not a factor as it is an indoor venue.
- UTSA looks to maintain its strong home conference streak after a .500 start, while Rice seeks a momentum shift after a recent loss and a bye week ahead, incentivizing them to perform well on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rice Owls: +340, UTSA Roadrunners: -440 | UTSA Roadrunners | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Rice Owls: +12.5 -112, UTSA Roadrunners: -12.5 -108 | UTSA Roadrunners -12.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Over/under | Over: 49.5 -108, Under: 49.5 -112 | Under 49.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 14% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UTSA Roadrunners are favored to win convincingly at home, continuing their strong home dominance over Rice. The expected margin aligns with the spread, given UTSA's home record and recent form advantages.
Predicted Score: UTSA Roadrunners 31 – Rice Owls 17