Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs UL Monroe Warhawks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, Texas

Game Overview

The Texas State Bobcats (4-6, 1-5 Sun Belt) host the UL Monroe Warhawks (3-7, 1-5 Sun Belt) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Texas State enters as heavy favorites, having recently snapped a losing streak with a win over Southern Miss, while UL Monroe continues to struggle offensively and defensively. Both teams are competing for bowl eligibility but remain near the bottom of their conference standings.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas State has shown improvement recently, winning their last game 41-14 against Southern Miss after a period of offensive inconsistency. However, they have allowed 40+ points in four of their last five games, indicating persistent defensive vulnerabilities. UL Monroe has been significantly worse, scoring 14 or fewer points in four of their last five games while allowing 31+ points in three of their last four contests. Texas State's offensive capabilities significantly outpace UL Monroe's, creating a stark talent disparity.
• Texas State has dominated this matchup historically, winning four of its last five games against UL Monroe. Additionally, UL Monroe has lost all of its last 12 November games against non-AP-ranked teams, a troubling trend heading into this late-season contest.
• No specific injury information is available from the provided data for either team.
• Weather conditions at game time show 73°F with 0% rain and minimal wind, providing neutral playing conditions. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, and UL Monroe has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams, while the favorite has covered in six of UL Monroe's last seven games.
• Both teams are fighting near the bottom of the Sun Belt standings with limited bowl game prospects. Texas State's recent win provides momentum, while UL Monroe is desperate to snap their lengthy losing streak. However, Texas State's superior offensive execution and historical dominance in this matchup suggest stronger positioning.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas State Bobcats win decisively. The combination of Texas State's significantly superior offensive production, historical head-to-head advantage, and UL Monroe's persistent inability to score or defend creates a clear mismatch. Texas State's defense, while flawed, remains substantially better than UL Monroe's struggling unit. The Bobcats should control this game throughout and secure a comfortable victory.

Predicted Score: Texas State 35, UL Monroe 17

Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, Texas

Game Overview

The Texas State Bobcats will host the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans in an NCAA Men’s basketball game. Texas State holds a 4-2 overall record and is undefeated at home (4-0), while Arkansas-Little Rock enters with a 2-3 overall record and a 1-3 record on the road. Both teams need momentum early in the season, meeting again following a recent close history and competitive matchups.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas State has shown stronger home performance with a 4-0 record and recently won 63-49 against Abilene Christian. Arkansas-Little Rock struggles on the road with a 1-3 record and recently lost 89-68 to Murray State. Key players include Texas State’s D. Hall with 10.8 PPG and strong shooting percentages, and Little Rock’s J. Lawson averaging 13.2 PPG but with lower team success.
• In the last 10 meetings, Texas State has won 8 times, showing dominance historically in this matchup. However, the last encounter resulted in a 71-66 win for Little Rock, indicating a competitive edge and potential for an upset.
• No specific injury data reported for either team before this game, suggesting both should have near full rosters available.
• Texas State has home-court advantage playing in San Marcos at the University Events Center, which has favored them in their undefeated home run. Little Rock has been inconsistent especially on the road, which may impact performance.
• Texas State aims to remain undefeated at home and continue their strong start this season. Little Rock looks to rebound from recent losses and secure a road victory to improve their season standing.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas State Bobcats are favored to win due to superior home record, historical head-to-head dominance, and current form. The game is expected to be moderately competitive but Texas State’s edge at home should secure the victory.

Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 70 – Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 63

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Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs Abilene Christian Wildcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-19
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Strahan Arena, San Marcos, Texas

Game Overview

The Texas State Bobcats host the Abilene Christian Wildcats in a midweek NCAAB matchup. Both teams enter with solid records, Texas State at 3-2 and Abilene Christian at 3-1. The game features a close spread and a moderate total, indicating a competitive matchup with potential for a tight finish.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas State has shown mixed results, going 2-2 in their last four games, but have covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 outings. Abilene Christian is 3-1, with a strong defensive showing in their recent games. Texas State's home record is 1-1 against the spread, while Abilene Christian has been consistent on the road.
• No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, making recent form and team trends the primary basis for analysis.
• No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
• The game is being played at Texas State's home venue, which could provide a slight edge due to crowd support. Weather and travel are not factors for this indoor game.
• Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. Texas State will be motivated to improve their home record, while Abilene Christian aims to prove their strength against a conference opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas State is favored to win this game, but the spread is narrow, indicating a close contest. The total points line suggests a moderate scoring game, with both teams likely to keep the pace controlled. Texas State's home advantage and recent spread performance give them a slight edge.

Predicted Score: Texas State 72, Abilene Christian 66

Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Southern Tigers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX

Game Overview

Texas State Bobcats (2-2) host Texas Southern Tigers (0-3) in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Texas State enters with a slight edge in recent form and is favored at home, while Texas Southern struggles with consistency and poor road performance. The game is expected to be competitive, with Texas State's defense and home-court advantage likely playing a key role.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas State averages 78.3 points per game on 46.9% shooting and allows 71.5 points on 41.4% shooting. Texas Southern shoots 35.3% from three and 61.9% from the free throw line, allowing 35.3% from deep and grabbing 45.5 rebounds per game. Texas State has won the first half in nine of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at home.
• Texas State has won the last four home games against Texas Southern. Texas Southern has lost 25 of its last 26 games against non-conference opponents, while Texas State has lost five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
• No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
• Texas State enjoys a strong home-court advantage at Strahan Arena, where the home team has won each of their last four games. The game is played on a Saturday evening, which may affect crowd energy and team focus.
• Texas State is motivated to build momentum early in the season and improve their home record. Texas Southern seeks their first win of the season and aims to break a long losing streak against non-conference opponents.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas State Bobcats are favored to win this matchup due to their superior recent performance, home-court advantage, and stronger defensive metrics. Texas Southern's struggles on the road and against non-conference opponents make it difficult for them to compete consistently. The game is likely to be decided by Texas State's ability to control the pace and limit Texas Southern's scoring opportunities.

Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 79, Texas Southern Tigers 70

Match Analysis: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 8:30 PM UTC
• Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Game Overview

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-2) host Texas State Bobcats (3-6) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Southern Miss is favored, with strong offensive production and a solid turnover margin, while Texas State struggles defensively and has covered the spread only twice this season. The game features a high total line, reflecting both teams' scoring tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities.

Key Factors to Consider

• Southern Miss averages 32.3 points per game (52nd nationally) and allows 24.2 (63rd), with a turnover margin of +16 (2nd). Texas State averages 34.7 points (29th) but allows 34.8 (125th), with a turnover margin of -8 (132nd). Southern Miss has covered the spread in 5 of 9 games, while Texas State has covered only twice. Southern Miss has been dominant at home (4-1 ATS), while Texas State struggles on the road.
• No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both teams are in the Sun Belt, but historical records for this specific pairing are not referenced in current sources.
• No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
• The game will be played at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, with favorable weather conditions (77°F, 0% rain, light wind). Southern Miss has a strong home-field advantage, averaging 33.0 points per game at home.
• Southern Miss is fighting for a strong conference finish and potential bowl eligibility, while Texas State is out of contention and may lack motivation. Southern Miss has won 4 of its last 5 games, showing momentum, while Texas State has lost 6 of its last 7.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Southern Miss is expected to win comfortably, with a strong defense and turnover advantage. The game is likely to stay under the high total due to Southern Miss's defensive efficiency and Texas State's offensive struggles. Southern Miss should cover the spread, and the under is the best bet for the total.

Predicted Score: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 38, Texas State Bobcats 26

Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-13
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX

Game Overview

The Texas State Bobcats host the UTSA Roadrunners in a non-conference matchup. Both teams are coming off recent losses, with Texas State at 1-2 and UTSA at 1-1. The game is expected to be close, with Texas State favored by a narrow margin. The total points line is set at 147.5, reflecting a moderate pace and defensive tendencies from both sides.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas State averages over 75 points per game and shoots efficiently, making over 49% of their shots and 76% of free throws. They excel in rebounding, grabbing over eight offensive rebounds per game. UTSA averages 78.5 points per game but struggled defensively in their last outing, allowing 77 points. UTSA plays at a fast pace (144th-fastest nationally) but has been inconsistent offensively, shooting just 28.2% from the field in their last game. Texas State has allowed only 55 points per game at home this season.
• UTSA holds a 6-4 record in their last 10 meetings with Texas State. The Bobcats won the most recent matchup in 2023, 72-62.
• No injuries have been reported for either team.
• Texas State has a slight edge playing at home, and the venue has seen low-scoring games in recent night matchups against non-conference opponents (seven straight under 134 points). UTSA, however, has seen high-scoring games in their last nine road night games against non-conference opponents (eight of nine over 156 points).
• Texas State is motivated to rebound from a recent loss and capitalize on their home advantage. UTSA seeks to bounce back after a poor shooting performance and prove their offensive capabilities on the road.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas State is favored to win and cover the spread due to their strong offensive rebounding, efficient shooting, and home-court advantage. The total is expected to go under, as Texas State's defense at home and recent trends in night games at Strahan Arena suggest a lower-scoring affair.

Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 72, UTSA Roadrunners 70

Match Analysis: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cajun Field at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium, Lafayette, Louisiana

Game Overview

The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (3-6) will host the Texas State Bobcats (3-5) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. The game is expected to be competitive, with Texas State favored by 2.5 points and the total set near 63.5 points. Both teams have struggled defensively throughout the season, contributing to the high total and close betting lines.

Key Factors to Consider

• Texas State averages 34.1 points scored per game with a balanced offense (253.8 pass yards and 217.1 rush yards per game) but concedes 33.9 points on defense, among the worst in the FBS. Louisiana has a lower scoring average (around 24.3 points per game) and also weak defense, allowing a high number of points, especially in Q2 and Q3 quarters. Texas State has lost its last three games as favorites and has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games, while Louisiana has covered the spread in four straight contests against Texas State.
• Historically, the favorite has dominated this rivalry, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings and covering the spread 8 of 10 times, mostly favoring Texas State. Louisiana has covered the spread in their last four games against Texas State but has struggled as an underdog.
• No specific injury information was reported for this game as of now.
• The game takes place at Louisiana's home venue, potentially benefiting the Ragin Cajuns. Both teams have shown tendencies for high-scoring games in November, increasing likelihood of a game surpassing the total points line.
• Both teams have middling records and are fighting for better positioning in the Sun Belt standings, with motivation potentially high for a late-season win as Texas State tries to extend their recent success against Louisiana.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas State is predicted to win narrowly as the favored team, with a probable final margin near the 2.5-point spread. The game is expected to be high-scoring given the offensive capabilities and defensive weaknesses of both teams.

Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 35 – 31 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns

Match Analysis: Tulane Green Wave vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Avron B. Fogelman Arena, Devlin Fieldhouse, New Orleans, LA

Game Overview

Tulane Green Wave hosts Texas State Bobcats in a non-conference NCAA basketball game. Tulane enters undefeated at 1-0 with strong offensive efficiency, shooting over 58% from the field and 52.4% from three-point range in their opener. Texas State is 1-1, showing decent scoring but less defensive stability. Tulane is favored heavily at home with a dominant moneyline and spread advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tulane has displayed efficient shooting (58.5% FG, 52.4% 3PT) with balanced scoring contributions and strong rebounding in their opening win. Texas State has a slightly better scoring average (76.2 vs 74.5 points) but worse defense, allowing 73.3 points per game compared to Tulane's 70.4 allowed. Turnover margin and assist numbers are fairly close. Tulane’s shooting defense is superior (allowing 41.1% FG vs Texas State’s 43.1%).
• No direct recent head-to-head data is currently available for this season; however, Tulane has shown stronger home performance covering spreads historically and better defensive metrics.
• No specific injury reports have been found for either team prior to the game.
• The game is played at Tulane's home arena in New Orleans, granting a home-court advantage. Betting public strongly favors Tulane both on moneyline and spread, with 66% of bets on Tulane and 84% public betting on 'over' for the total points line.
• Both teams are early in the season and coming off wins. Tulane aims to maintain perfect record and validate their favorite status; Texas State looks to prove competitiveness away from home.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Tulane Green Wave are predicted to win decisively at home by a margin exceeding the -12.5 point spread due to superior shooting efficiency, defense, and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Tulane Green Wave 82 – 67 Texas State Bobcats

Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs James Madison Dukes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-28
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, Texas

Game Overview

The James Madison Dukes (6-1 overall, 4-0 Sun Belt East) visit the Texas State Bobcats (3-4 overall, 0-3 Sun Belt West) for a key Sun Belt conference matchup. James Madison has demonstrated a strong defense and is ranked 12th nationally in scoring defense. Texas State struggles in conference play and is on a three-game losing streak, but possesses the 24th-ranked scoring offense nationally. The game projects to be high scoring with an over/under set at 60.5 points, featuring an intriguing matchup between James Madison's defense and Texas State's offense.

Key Factors to Consider

• James Madison is undefeated in conference play (4-0) and 6-1 overall, showing dominant wins recently such as a 63-27 victory over Old Dominion. Texas State is 0-3 in conference and 3-4 overall, losing narrowly 40-37 to Marshall in their last game. James Madison excels defensively, ranked 12th nationally in scoring defense, while Texas State ranks 24th nationally in scoring offense. Texas State's recent offensive output has been high, but their defense has struggled against strong opponents.
• No recent head-to-head data is available from this season for direct comparison. Historically both teams are competitive within the Sun Belt, with James Madison currently holding the upper hand in conference standings. James Madison's stronger standing and performance suggest a recent dominance.
• No specific injury information is provided in the available data for either team, indicating no major known injury concerns affecting key starters for this matchup.
• The game is hosted at Texas State's home stadium UFCU Stadium with a capacity of 28,000, potentially offering home crowd advantage for Texas State. Weather conditions or other external environmental factors are not detailed but could influence gameplay. The timing of the game on a Tuesday night is unusual and might affect preparation.
• James Madison aims to maintain its perfect conference record and strengthen its position atop the Sun Belt East. Texas State needs a win to break a three-game losing streak and improve its conference standing, providing strong motivation to compete hard at home.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

James Madison Dukes are favored to win the game based on superior defensive performance, undefeated conference record, and recent strong wins. Texas State's potent offense will challenge James Madison’s defense but their defensive struggles and all losses in conference lessen their chances. The predicted high scoring nature will make it competitive, but James Madison is more likely to secure a solid win.

Predicted Score: James Madison 38 – Texas State 28