Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, Texas
Game Overview
The Texas State Bobcats will host the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans in an NCAA Men’s basketball game. Texas State holds a 4-2 overall record and is undefeated at home (4-0), while Arkansas-Little Rock enters with a 2-3 overall record and a 1-3 record on the road. Both teams need momentum early in the season, meeting again following a recent close history and competitive matchups.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State has shown stronger home performance with a 4-0 record and recently won 63-49 against Abilene Christian. Arkansas-Little Rock struggles on the road with a 1-3 record and recently lost 89-68 to Murray State. Key players include Texas State’s D. Hall with 10.8 PPG and strong shooting percentages, and Little Rock’s J. Lawson averaging 13.2 PPG but with lower team success.
- In the last 10 meetings, Texas State has won 8 times, showing dominance historically in this matchup. However, the last encounter resulted in a 71-66 win for Little Rock, indicating a competitive edge and potential for an upset.
- No specific injury data reported for either team before this game, suggesting both should have near full rosters available.
- Texas State has home-court advantage playing in San Marcos at the University Events Center, which has favored them in their undefeated home run. Little Rock has been inconsistent especially on the road, which may impact performance.
- Texas State aims to remain undefeated at home and continue their strong start this season. Little Rock looks to rebound from recent losses and secure a road victory to improve their season standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats: -192, Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: 160 | Texas State Bobcats | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Texas State Bobcats: -4.5 -110, Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans: 4.5 -110 | Texas State Bobcats to cover -4.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 134.5 -110, Under: 134.5 -110 | Over 134.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 134.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 134.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State Bobcats are favored to win due to superior home record, historical head-to-head dominance, and current form. The game is expected to be moderately competitive but Texas State’s edge at home should secure the victory.
Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 70 – Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 63