Match Analysis: North Carolina Tar Heels vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2025
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers

Game Overview

Two undefeated powerhouses collide in the Fort Myers Tip-Off tournament when the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-0) host the St. Bonaventure Bonnies (5-0). North Carolina enters as heavy favorites despite the recent loss of star guard Seth Trimble to a broken forearm. The Tar Heels have demonstrated elite defensive prowess and balanced scoring, while St. Bonaventure has built their record through strong effort and efficient team play. This matchup represents a significant step up in competition for both programs, with the winner positioning themselves as a tournament contender.

Key Factors to Consider

• North Carolina showcases dominant metrics with an outscoring margin of +24.8 points per game and a +124 scoring differential. They average 88.0 PPG (59th nationally) while limiting opponents to 63.2 PPG (31st nationally), demonstrating elite two-way play. St. Bonaventure averages 78.4 PPG (195th nationally) and allows 68.0 PPG, showing respectable but not elite performance. UNC's scoring efficiency (47.6% FG, 71.0% FT) significantly outpaces St. Bonaventure (48.5% FG, 74.7% FT). The Tar Heels' assist rate (18.0 APG, 54th nationally) reflects superior ball movement compared to St. Bonaventure's offense. Both teams feature perfect 5-0 records, but UNC's strength of schedule (including a win over Kansas) suggests higher quality competition.
• No historical head-to-head data is available for this matchup. However, North Carolina's demonstrated ability to compete against top competition (including Kansas) suggests they are better equipped to handle St. Bonaventure's defensive pressure. UNC's home court advantage at Suncoast Credit Union Arena is notable, as the Tar Heels were 5-0 at home to start the season compared to St. Bonaventure's 5-0 record (all played at home).
• Seth Trimble, North Carolina's star guard, suffered a broken forearm and will miss several weeks. This represents the most significant injury impact on the game, potentially reducing UNC's backcourt versatility and scoring punch. No reported injuries for St. Bonaventure.
• The Fort Myers Tip-Off tournament format adds competitive stakes beyond a regular season game. This is St. Bonaventure's first true road test of the season, which could present an adjustment challenge. North Carolina's familiarity with neutral-site tournament play and their overall program resources provide logistical advantages. The game receives prominent media coverage on FS1, suggesting ESPN considers it a notable mid-week matchup.
• Both teams are undefeated and motivated to maintain perfect records. North Carolina seeks to validate their elite status against proven competition and avoid complacency despite Trimble's absence. St. Bonaventure faces a championship-level test that, if won, dramatically elevates their tournament seeding and national perception. The tournament setting intensifies urgency for both programs.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

North Carolina Tar Heels win 82-68. The Tar Heels' significant talent advantage, superior defensive execution (31st nationally in points allowed), and elite ball movement will prove too much for St. Bonaventure despite the loss of Seth Trimble. UNC's depth and interior strength will provide consistent scoring even without Trimble, while their defense will limit St. Bonaventure's offensive efficiency. St. Bonaventure can compete with controlled pace and effort, but UNC's firepower and composure in tournament play will result in late-game separation.

Predicted Score: North Carolina 82, St. Bonaventure 68 (Total: 150 points)

Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Robert Morris Colonials – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-20
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Reilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY

Game Overview

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies, currently undefeated at 4-0, host the Robert Morris Colonials (3-1) in a non-conference matchup. The Bonnies have shown strong early form, particularly at home, while Robert Morris has demonstrated resilience on the road but faces a significant challenge against a physically dominant Bonnies team. The game is set for a prime-time slot, with ESPN+ coverage, and both teams are coming off solid performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Bonaventure has started 4-0, averaging 79.3 points per game and allowing just 69.8, with a strong rebounding and defensive presence. Robert Morris is 3-1, averaging 81.0 points per game but allowing 71.0, showing offensive capability but some defensive vulnerabilities. The Bonnies have won 10 of their last 11 non-conference games, while Robert Morris has lost the first half in four of its last five road games against Atlantic 10 opponents.
• No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but St. Bonaventure's dominance in non-conference play and Robert Morris's struggles in similar situations suggest a clear edge for the Bonnies.
• Robert Morris is dealing with injuries to key players: Ikpotokin (undisclosed, out) and Egbuniwe (lower body, out). These absences could impact their defensive and rebounding capabilities.
• The game is being played at the Reilly Center, where St. Bonaventure has a strong home record. The Bonnies' physical style and veteran leadership are expected to be major factors. Robert Morris has won 13 of its last 14 night games, but this is a significant step up in competition.
• St. Bonaventure is looking to maintain its undefeated record and build momentum for conference play. Robert Morris is seeking a signature win to boost its profile and confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

St. Bonaventure is favored to win this game, with a projected final score of 73-66. The Bonnies' strong start, home advantage, and physical play should be enough to overcome Robert Morris's offensive capabilities. The spread of +10.5 for Robert Morris is seen as generous, but the Bonnies are expected to cover. The total points are likely to stay under 146.5, given the Bonnies' defensive strength and the projected pace of the game.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 73, Robert Morris 66

Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Youngstown St Penguins – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Reilly Center

Game Overview

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies will host the Youngstown State Penguins in an NCAA college basketball game at the Reilly Center. St. Bonaventure enters undefeated at 3-0 while Youngstown State is 2-1. St. Bonaventure is the clear favorite based on current odds and predictive simulations, favored by around 9.5 points with a total points line near 143.5-144.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Bonaventure holds a perfect 3-0 record with strong recent scoring performances, while Youngstown State is 2-1 with a decent performance trend. St. Bonaventure has a 3-0 straight-up record and an ATS record of 1-2 in their last five games; Youngstown State has a balanced recent record, 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS over the last 10 games.
• No explicit recent direct head-to-head stats were found, but St. Bonaventure has shown dominance historically and currently with a projected win probability around 84%.
• No specific injury reports or absences were indicated in the sourced data for either team at game time.
• The game will be played at St. Bonaventure's home court, the Reilly Center, which supports the home team's strong advantage. Public betting trends show 100% bet volume on St. Bonaventure moneyline, indicating confidence in the home team.
• St. Bonaventure, undefeated and hosting, is motivated to maintain their winning streak, whereas Youngstown State aims to secure an upset on the road.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

St. Bonaventure to win convincingly with a score projection around 77-67 in their favor, covering the spread of -9.5.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 77 – Youngstown State 67

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Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Siena Saints – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: St. Bonaventure, NY

Game Overview

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies host the Siena Saints in a midweek non-conference matchup, both teams entering the game undefeated. St. Bonaventure has shown strong offensive efficiency and depth, while Siena has been solid defensively but struggles with three-point shooting. The Bonnies are favored at home, with the spread set at 8.5 points and the total at 140.5.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Bonaventure averages 79.0 points per game, shooting 44.5% from the field and 77.1% from the free-throw line. They are ranked 158th in assists (16.0 per game) and average 43.0 rebounds. Siena averages 72.0 points per game, shooting 43.5% from the field and 20.0% from three. They average 40.5 rebounds and 30 assists for the season. St. Bonaventure has a higher offensive efficiency (1.184 vs. 1.038) and better effective field goal percentage (51.2% vs. 46.0%). Siena’s defense is strong, allowing only 68.2% free-throw shooting and forcing turnovers at a high rate (22.8% of opponent possessions).
• No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but St. Bonaventure has historically held an edge in the series, especially at home.
• Siena is missing Reid Ducharme (shoulder). St. Bonaventure is missing Xander Wedlow (lower leg) and Achille Lonati played limited minutes due to injury. Amar'e Marshall also saw limited action in the opener. These absences could impact depth and rebounding for both teams.
• St. Bonaventure is playing at home, which typically provides a boost in performance and crowd support. The game is early in the season, so both teams are still developing chemistry and adjusting to new rotations.
• Both teams are undefeated and will be motivated to maintain their records. St. Bonaventure, as the higher-ranked team, will be looking to assert dominance, while Siena will be aiming to prove itself against a stronger opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

St. Bonaventure is favored due to superior offensive efficiency, depth, and home-court advantage. Siena’s defense is solid, but their lack of three-point shooting and the absence of key players make it difficult to keep pace. The Bonnies are expected to win and cover the spread, with the game likely to stay under the total due to Siena’s defensive style and St. Bonaventure’s potential for turnovers.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure Bonnies 83 – 65 Siena Saints

Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Canisius Golden Griffins – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Buffalo, NY

Game Overview

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies face the Canisius Golden Griffins in a historic local rivalry—the 172nd meeting between the teams, with an all-time series lead strongly favoring the Bonnies (103–69)[7]. Both teams are early in their seasons, with St. Bonaventure (1–0) coming off a solid home win over CSUN, and Canisius (0–1) after a heavy road loss to a top-10 Arizona team[2]. The Bonnies are playing away, but this is a short trip and games between these teams have been close in recent years despite St. Bonaventure's superior record.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Bonaventure opened the season with a 70–56 win, showing defensive solidity and efficient play, while Canisius struggled defensively in a 64–93 blowout loss to a vastly superior Arizona team[2]. St. Bonaventure has a returning core and better recent results, while Canisius has 11 new players and a major rebuild underway; only two regulars from last year return. Both teams are looking for growth, but the Bonnies' form and defensive ability give them an edge on paper[2][7].
• Recent head-to-head meetings have been competitive: Canisius won the last matchup 70–67 (2023), and their last five clashes have alternated winners, with margins ranging from 3 to 11 points[1][5]. St. Bonaventure leads the series overall, and has been more successful than Canisius in recent years, but the games are rarely blowouts. In games played in Buffalo, the Bonnies are just 52–53, indicating the rivalry is closer on the Griffins' home turf[2].
• No injury updates are available in the current data, but both rosters are early in the season and injury risk is typical for this stage.
• The game is a local derby, so expect a spirited atmosphere and potentially closer margins than raw form suggests—though St. Bonaventure is favored by much improved preseason performance and continuity[2][7].
• Both teams seek early momentum, but the Bonnies, with greater continuity and recent program success, have more to lose and are aiming to extend their all-time series lead against a Canisius squad in transition[2][7].

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

St. Bonaventure is favored to win, but the large spread suggests bookmakers expect a potential rout. However, recent history shows this rivalry is almost always competitive—three of the last five meetings have been decided by four points or fewer[1][5]. The Bonnies have the better team and are likely to win, but not by nearly 19 points as the spread indicates. The total is set at 137.5, a modest O/U for modern college basketball, reflecting both teams' defensive capabilities in early-season action.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure Bonnies 75, Canisius Golden Griffins 62

Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Kent State Golden Flashes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-18
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Olean, New York

Game Overview

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies host the Kent State Golden Flashes in the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). Both teams have similar overall records, but St. Bonaventure has been strong defensively, while Kent State excels in rebounding.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Bonaventure has a strong defensive record, limiting opponents to 64.9 points per game. Kent State averages 81.7 points over their last ten games, showing a high-scoring offense.
• There is no previous head-to-head match between St. Bonaventure and Kent State.
• No significant injury reports are available for either team.
• Home-court advantage could favor St. Bonaventure, but Kent State's recent form might offset this.
• Both teams are motivated to advance in the NIT, but St. Bonaventure's defensive prowess might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

St. Bonaventure Bonnies to win.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure Bonnies 68, Kent State Golden Flashes 62

Match Analysis: VCU Rams vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-14
• Time: 3:30 PM UTC
• Location: Capital One Arena

Game Overview

The VCU Rams, with a strong 25-6 record, face off against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, who have a 21-10 record. VCU is favored due to their superior performance and defensive capabilities.

Key Factors to Consider

• VCU has been performing well, averaging 77.9 points per game while allowing 62.7 points. St. Bonaventure averages 69.3 points per game. VCU's defense will be crucial in this matchup.
• The teams have split their last two matchups. This season's head-to-head results suggest a competitive game, but VCU's overall strength gives them an edge.
• No significant injury reports are available for either team.
• The game is at a neutral venue, which could affect team dynamics. However, VCU's experience and recent form might mitigate this factor.
• Both teams are highly motivated, but VCU's recent loss might provide additional motivation to bounce back.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

VCU Rams are likely to win due to their strong defensive capabilities and recent performance.

Predicted Score: VCU Rams 72, St. Bonaventure Bonnies 65

Match Analysis: St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs Duquesne Dukes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-13
• Time: 3:30 PM UTC
• Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

Game Overview

St. Bonaventure Bonnies and Duquesne Dukes face off in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, with St. Bonaventure holding the No. 8 seed and Duquesne the No. 9 seed. Both teams have had mixed performances this season, with St. Bonaventure finishing 21-10 overall and Duquesne at 13-17. The teams split their regular-season series, each winning at home.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Bonaventure has shown consistency with a 21-10 record, while Duquesne struggled more with a 13-17 record. However, Duquesne is the defending Atlantic 10 champion and has shown strong performances against St. Bonaventure in recent years.
• The teams have a long-standing rivalry, with St. Bonaventure leading the series historically. However, Duquesne has recently gained the upper hand, including a win in the 2024 semifinals. They split their home-and-home series this season.
• No significant injury reports are available for either team.
• The game is part of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, which adds pressure and motivation for both teams. The neutral venue at Capital One Arena could affect team dynamics.
• Both teams are highly motivated, with St. Bonaventure seeking to advance and Duquesne aiming to repeat its championship performance.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

St. Bonaventure Bonnies to win.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure Bonnies 65, Duquesne Dukes 62

Match Analysis: Davidson Wildcats vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Belk Arena

Game Overview

Davidson Wildcats host St. Bonaventure Bonnies in a matchup where Davidson averages 72.9 points per game, while St. Bonaventure averages 69.7 points per game. Davidson has a strong offense but faces a defensively solid St. Bonaventure team.

Key Factors to Consider

• Davidson has a higher scoring average and better three-point shooting, but St. Bonaventure excels defensively, allowing only 64.9 points per game. Davidson's top performers include Reed Bailey and Bobby Durkin, while St. Bonaventure relies on Melvin Council Jr. and Chance Moore.
• Davidson has historically dominated the series, winning 9 out of 13 games since 2017. However, St. Bonaventure has shown recent competitiveness.
• No significant injury reports are available for this matchup.
• The game is played at Davidson's home court, which could provide an advantage. However, St. Bonaventure's strong defense might mitigate this.
• Both teams are motivated, but Davidson's need to secure a better conference standing might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Davidson is likely to win due to their strong offense and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Davidson 73, St. Bonaventure 69