Match Analysis: Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-29
- Time: 11:15 PM UTC
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Game Overview
The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets both enter this game with 0-3 records, fighting to avoid an 0-4 start. The Dolphins hold home-field advantage and have a slight edge in offensive efficiency, especially rushing, while the Jets' defense struggles to generate pressure and turnovers. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities, suggesting a closely contested matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are 0-3, showing offensive struggles with Miami ranking lower on passing yards but better on rushing efficiency (5.17 YPC vs Jets 4.11). Jets have a middling pass defense but struggle to pressure quarterbacks consistently with only 2 sacks so far. Miami allowed 29 points last game but showed ability to score close games.
- Jets have a poor recent record against Miami, going 2-8 SU in last 10 meetings and 4-10 ATS. Miami has dominated on home turf, adding to Jets' difficulties in this matchup.
- No major injury updates reported for core starters on either team, meaning both squads should be near full strength.
- Early season game with both teams desperate for a win; Miami benefits from home crowd and familiar climate. Jets face travel fatigue and defensive coaching predictability, as they often blitz in obvious situations.
- Both teams are highly motivated to avoid an 0-4 start. Miami aims to leverage home advantage to break losing streak, while Jets need to fix defensive issues fast to remain competitive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -155, away: 130 | Miami Dolphins | β β β β β 76% |
Spread | home: -2.5 -118, away: +2.5 -102 | Miami Dolphins -2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | over: 45.5 -105, under: 45.5 -115 | Under 45.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Dolphins 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 45.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Dolphins to win straight up, cover the 2.5-point spread, and game to go under the total points line.
Predicted Score: Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 17