Match Analysis: Genoa vs Lazio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-29
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Luigi Ferraris, Genova, Italy
Game Overview
Genoa and Lazio will face off in the Serie A at Luigi Ferraris stadium. Genoa currently ranks 16th in the league while Lazio holds the 13th position. Both teams have had moderate starts to the season, with key offensive players like Andrea Pinamonti (Genoa) and Pedro (Lazio) each scoring 10 goals so far. Historically, Lazio leads the head-to-head record with 15 wins against Genoa's 12 and 4 draws, showing a slightly stronger overall performance in their encounters. This match is expected to be competitive with Genoa defending their home turf against a slightly favored Lazio side.
Key Factors to Consider
- Genoa has scored 37 goals and conceded 46 in the season, showing defensive vulnerabilities but capable attack led by Pinamonti. Lazio has scored 61 goals and conceded 47, indicating a stronger and more consistent offensive threat, particularly with Pedro as their top scorer.
- Lazio has the edge in historical encounters with 15 wins to Genoa's 12 and 4 draws. Last season, the teams met twice with outcomes that suggest closely contested matches.
- There are no specific details available regarding current injuries for either team at this time from the sources.
- The match is held at Genoa's home ground Luigi Ferraris, which could benefit the home side. No other notable external factors such as weather or schedule congestion are indicated.
- Both teams aim to climb the Serie A standingsβGenoa seeks to improve from their lower mid-table position while Lazio looks to solidify their place higher up, adding intensity to the contest.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Genoa: 200, Lazio: 155, Draw: 200 | Lazio win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Genoa: 0 110, Lazio: 0 -130 | Lazio to cover spread (0) | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2 -128, Under: 2 108 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lazio 15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Lazio at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lazio is predicted to edge the game based on their superior current form, offensive capabilities, and historical advantage over Genoa, but a draw or narrow Genoa upset remains possible given home advantage.
Predicted Score: 1-2