Match Analysis: San Diego St Aztecs vs San José St Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-23
- Time: 6:05 PM UTC
- Location: Tony Gwynn Stadium, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The NCAA baseball match features the San Diego State Aztecs hosting the San José State Spartans at Tony Gwynn Stadium. Both teams have shown mixed recent performances; San Diego State recently won decisively against UNLV but suffered a heavy loss to Nevada, while San José State has had variable results. This matchup is key as both teams look to leverage home advantage and recent experience to gain a winning edge.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State Aztecs have demonstrated strong offensive capability with an 8-0 win over UNLV but displayed inconsistency with a 4-15 loss to Nevada. San José State Spartans have been competitive but less dominant, highlighted by a 2-5 loss to San Diego State earlier this season, indicating San Diego's upper hand in head-to-head performance.
- The Aztecs defeated the Spartans 5-2 on April 17, 2025, at San José, demonstrating better form and home/away advantage dynamics in recent encounters.
- No specific injury reports or player absences have been highlighted for either team as of current information, suggesting both squads should field close to full strength.
- Home advantage favors San Diego State, playing at Tony Gwynn Stadium. Weather or other environmental factors have not been specified but should be considered typical for late May in San Diego (mild and favorable for baseball).
- San Diego State Aztecs likely have higher motivation to capitalize on home conditions and recent dominant wins, while San José State Spartans will aim to upset and improve their record against a rival they lost to earlier this season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego St Aztecs: 110, San José St Spartans: -140 | San José St Spartans | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | San Diego St Aztecs: 1.5 -145, San José St Spartans: -1.5 114 | San José St Spartans -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 13.5 -115, Under: 13.5 -115 | Over 13.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San José St Spartans -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 13.5 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 13.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State Aztecs are favored to win based on stronger recent performance, home advantage, and head-to-head history. Expect a moderately high-scoring game given both teams' offensive potentials.
Predicted Score: San Diego State Aztecs 6 – 8 San José State Spartans