Match Analysis: Michigan St Spartans vs San José St Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan
Game Overview
Michigan State hosts San José State in a heavily lopsided matchup featuring the undefeated, ranked #17 Michigan State Spartans against the winless San José State Spartans. Michigan State enters at 2-0 after a narrow 69-66 home victory over Arkansas, while San José State arrives 0-2 following consecutive road losses to Utah (84-75) and UC Santa Barbara (85-74). These teams last met in 2007 with Michigan State winning decisively 85-45. The oddsmakers have installed Michigan State as an overwhelming -10000 moneyline favorite with a 24.5-point spread, reflecting the substantial talent and depth disparity between the two programs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michigan State demonstrates superior depth, size, and defensive intensity, with elite ball movement, rebounding prowess, and half-court control under head coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans rank 24th nationally in field goal percentage allowed (40.5%) and feature notable perimeter scoring from Jaden Akins and paint dominance from Jaxon Kohler. San José State has struggled significantly in early season play, shooting just 46% against Utah and 44.4% overall, while surrendering 45.7% from the field. The Spartans rank 357th nationally in three-point shooting at 20.0% and 198th in two-point shooting at 50.0%, indicating serious offensive limitations.
- Michigan State holds a commanding historical advantage over San José State, with their last meeting in 2007 resulting in a 40-point Michigan State victory (85-45). No recent competitive history exists between these programs, and the talent gap has only widened since their last matchup nearly two decades ago.
- No injury information is available in the current reports. Both teams appear to have their full rosters available for this contest.
- San José State is searching for its first victory of the season after consecutive road losses, facing a long road trip to East Lansing to compete against a top-25 program in a hostile environment. Michigan State's home court advantage at Breslin Center provides significant support, where the Spartans thrive on defensive pressure and controlled pace.
- Michigan State aims to extend its undefeated start and maintain their top-25 ranking against a significantly overmatched opponent. San José State desperately seeks its first win of the season to avoid an 0-3 start and gain confidence heading into conference play. However, Michigan State's overwhelming superiority suggests motivation will not meaningfully affect the outcome.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan State -10000 | San José State +2400 | Michigan State Win | ★★★★★ 99% |
| Spread | Michigan State -23.5 (-120) | San José State +23.5 (-102) | Michigan State -24.5 Cover | ★★★★★ 92% |
| Over/under | Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan St Spartans 2375% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 142.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Michigan St Spartans at 2375% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 99% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michigan State will dominate San José State from the opening tip, leveraging their superior depth, defensive intensity, and ball movement to control both ends of the floor. The Spartans should establish an early lead and maintain comfortable margin throughout, winning decisively by at least 20+ points. Michigan State's defensive suffocation and San José State's offensive struggles will result in a low-scoring affair relative to the spread, with Michigan State covering easily while the game likely stays under the total.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 77, San José State 73 (Multiple analytical sources) | Alternative projection: Michigan State 103, San José State 56 (Blowout scenario)