Match Analysis: St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-11
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Home stadium of St. Louis City SC
Game Overview
This MLS match between St. Louis City SC and San Diego FC is poised to be a tightly contested encounter. Both teams have limited direct head-to-head history, having played only one previous match that ended in a goalless draw. St. Louis City SC has shown defensive solidity recently, conceding few goals, while San Diego FC exhibits a slightly more attacking style with higher goals scored per match but also a strong defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Louis City SC has recently won 1, drawn 3, and lost 1 in their last 5 games, scoring on average 1.0 goal per match and conceding just 0.2. Their Asian Handicap win rate is strong at 75%, indicating good performance against the spread. San Diego FC’s last 5 outings include 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a higher scoring average at 2.4 goals per match but also conceding 0.4 goals. Their Asian Handicap success stands at 50%.
- The only match between these teams in 2025 ended in a 0-0 draw. Both teams have not registered any wins against each other, and matches have been low scoring historically.
- No specific injury information is provided from the current data. Both squads are presumed to have their main players available.
- The match takes place at St. Louis City SC’s home ground, which could provide a modest home advantage. No significant external disruptions or weather conditions reported.
- Both clubs are motivated to assert superiority early in their rivalry, with St. Louis City SC looking to leverage home advantage and defensive solidity, while San Diego FC aims to capitalize on their offensive capabilities.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego FC: 160, St. Louis City SC: 150, Draw: 280 | St. Louis City SC to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | San Diego FC: -105 (0 spread), St. Louis City SC: -115 (0 spread) | St. Louis City SC to cover the spread | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -115, Under 2.75: -105 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Louis City SC 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 37% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the defensive strengths and recent form, a closely contested match is expected with a slight edge to St. Louis City SC due to home advantage and stronger Asian Handicap trends. A low-scoring draw or narrow win for St. Louis City SC is the most probable outcome.
Predicted Score: 1-0