Match Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs New York Red Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-06
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Game Overview
The upcoming MLS clash between San Jose Earthquakes and New York Red Bulls features two teams with closely matched recent form and ambitions to boost their playoff positioning. San Jose has shown resilience with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeat in their last 6 matches, averaging 1.83 goals scored and conceding 1.5, while New York brings a slightly better recent record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 1.17. Both teams have similar possession stats and goal averages, setting up a tightly contested matchup at San Joseβs home venue.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose Earthquakes are difficult to beat, especially at home where they remain undefeated in 80% of their last 10 league matches but have converted few draws into wins recently. They average about 15.83 shots per match with just over 7 on target and maintain possession slightly above 51%. New York Red Bulls have a more efficient offense, producing fewer shots (12.17) but scoring at a higher rate (2.0 goals per game). Away results for New York are moderate with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 3 away fixtures.
- Recent meetings between these teams have been competitive with close scorelines, indicating balanced forces. San Joseβs strong home performance contrasts with New Yorkβs efficiency, which may neutralize each other in this encounter. No significant historical dominance by either side is evident, suggesting an open contest.
- No specific injury reports were found in the available data. Both teams appear to be close to full strength for this fixture.
- The match takes place midweek at PayPal Park, which may influence player fatigue and squad rotation. There are no reported external disruptions. The July timing is generally favorable with stable weather conditions.
- Both teams are motivated by playoff aspirations and are currently close in the standings. San Jose seeks to turn home draws into wins to solidify their playoff chances, while New York aims to capitalize on away opportunities to improve their record and maintain momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Red Bulls: 2.35, San Jose Earthquakes: 1, Draw: 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | New York Red Bulls: -0.5 @ -122, San Jose Earthquakes: +50 @ 102 | San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 goals @ -112, Under: 3 goals @ -108 | Over 3 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose Earthquakes 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the similar form but San Joseβs strong home unbeaten run alongside New Yorkβs higher scoring efficiency, a narrow victory or draw is most probable. The match is likely to be competitive with goals from both sides but a slight edge to San Jose at home.
Predicted Score: 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes