Match Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi
Game Overview
Hellas Verona hosts Parma in a crucial Serie A Round 12 clash at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Both teams are battling near the relegation zone, with Verona currently 19th and Parma 17th. The match is expected to be tight, with both sides struggling for consistency and attacking output. Recent form suggests a low-scoring, defensive encounter, but Verona's home advantage and Parma's defensive vulnerabilities could tilt the balance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hellas Verona has drawn three and lost two of their last five matches, showing defensive solidity with three clean sheets but lacking attacking efficiency. Parma has conceded eight goals in their last five games, indicating defensive frailties, but they have shown resilience, including a recent draw against AC Milan. Both teams have struggled to win, with Verona failing to win in six attempts and Parma scoring only four goals in their last five matches.
- The head-to-head record is closely contested, with Verona winning three of the last five encounters and Parma securing one victory. The most recent match ended in a 0-0 draw, suggesting a potential for another tight game. Verona has scored in three of the last five meetings, indicating a slight edge in attack.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- The match will be officiated by Luca Pairetto, known for a balanced approach. Weather conditions are expected to be favorable, with no significant impact on play. The venue, Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, is known for its passionate home support, which could provide an additional boost for Verona.
- Both teams are fighting to avoid relegation, with Verona in a more precarious position. The home advantage and the need for points could motivate Verona to push for a win, while Parma will look to secure at least a draw to maintain their position above the relegation zone.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hellas Verona: 133, Parma: 240, Draw: 200 | Hellas Verona | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Hellas Verona: -0.25 -105, Parma: 25 -115 | Hellas Verona -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2 -118, Under: 2 -102 | Over 2 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hellas Verona 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2 -4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Hellas Verona at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hellas Verona is favored to edge out a narrow victory, leveraging their home advantage and Parma's defensive weaknesses. The match is expected to be closely contested, with both teams likely to create chances but struggling to convert. A 2-1 win for Verona is the most probable outcome, with a high likelihood of goals coming from quick transitions and counter-attacks.
Predicted Score: 2-1