Match Analysis: AS Roma vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Italy
Game Overview
AS Roma, currently 2nd in Serie A with a strong start (6 wins including 4 by 1-0 scorelines), face Parma, who sit 15th and struggle offensively with only 3 goals and no away goals this season. Roma have a recent strong form though vulnerable at home, while Parma are battling relegation and have one win this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Roma have won 4 of 8 Serie A games, returning to form after a brief dip, but show home vulnerabilities having lost 4 of their last 5 home matches narrowly. Parma have struggled with only 1 win in 8 games, a league-low 3 goals scored, and failed to score any away goals this season (0-0-4 away record).
- Roma have won the last 2 matches against Parma, showing dominance in their recent encounters.
- Roma are largely back to fitness with Dybala returning and Bailey competing for a spot; Angelino remains sidelined with bronchitis. Parma have multiple injuries including Emanuele Valeri, Gaetano Oristanio, Matija Frigan, Jacob Ondrejka, and Pontus Almqvist is doubtful.
- Match played at Romaβs Stadio Olimpico which favors home advantage. Parmaβs poor away record and low scoring is compounded by travel and squad absences.
- Roma are motivated to maintain their title challenge level with Napoli, while Parma fight to climb out of relegation with limited offensive options.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma: -205, Parma: 600, Draw: 320 | AS Roma win | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | AS Roma -1: -118, Parma +1: -102 | AS Roma -1 (win by at least 2 goals) | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 goals: -118, Under 2.25 goals: -102 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 29% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Roma to win due to stronger form, home advantage, and squad fitness with a strong likelihood of under 2.5 goals given Romaβs slim-margin wins and Parma's offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: 2-0