Match Analysis: Palmeiras-SP vs LDU Quito – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-31
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
The 2025 Copa Libertadores semi-final second leg sees Palmeiras-SP hosting LDU Quito at Allianz Parque. Palmeiras face a daunting task overcoming a 3-0 first leg deficit suffered away at LDU Quito’s high-altitude home venue. Palmeiras are one of South America's richest clubs and recent multi-time champions, while LDU Quito shocked many by dominating the first leg emphatically.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras are the favorites on paper and at home but have struggled offensively against LDU’s disciplined defense. LDU Quito showed exceptional form in the first leg, winning 3-0 with strong attacking displays, particularly from Gabriel Villamil who scored twice. Palmeiras will need a strong attacking performance, but key players like Paulinho, Lucas Evangelista, and goalkeeper Weverton are still out injured. LDU's Bryan Ramirez is suspended for this match after his red card in the first leg.
- This is a rare fixture, and the first leg was a decisive 3-0 win for LDU Quito. Historically, Palmeiras have had more success in Libertadores, but LDU’s recent form and first leg result tilt the current H2H in their favor.
- Palmeiras are missing Paulinho, Lucas Evangelista, and goalkeeper Weverton. Anibal Moreno is doubtful. LDU Quito miss Bryan Ramirez (suspension), Alejandro Cabeza (injury), and the availability of Lisandro Alzugaray and Jeison Medina is uncertain.
- Altitude and home support favored LDU Quito in the first leg. Now playing at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras will have home crowd support but feel pressure to overturn a large deficit. The pressure can impact Palmeiras’ mental approach. Weather and pitch conditions expected to favor Palmeiras.
- Palmeiras are highly motivated to reach the final and defend their status as one of the strongest teams continentally. LDU Quito, having shocked Palmeiras and the continent, will aim to maintain composure and exploit defensive chances given Palmeiras’ need to press hard.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | LDU Quito: 1300, Palmeiras-SP: -480, Draw: 550 | Palmeiras win (moneyline) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | LDU Quito: 2 -130, Palmeiras-SP: -2 100 | Palmeiras to cover -2 spread | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -155, Under: 2.5 118 | Over 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Palmeiras-SP 880% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Palmeiras-SP at 880% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 67.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras are predicted to push aggressively and likely dominate possession and chances at home, but overcoming a 3-goal deficit is challenging. Taking into account missing key players and LDU's solid defense, Palmeiras are likely to win the match but only by a margin of 1 or 2 goals, thus LDU Quito should progress on aggregate.
Predicted Score: Palmeiras-SP 2 – 0 LDU Quito