Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Mirassol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-17
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Botafogo's Home Stadium
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato match features Botafogo hosting Mirassol. Both teams have competitive histories and are positioned closely in the league standings. Botafogo holds a slight edge playing at home, but Mirassol’s recent form and historical head-to-head results suggest a tightly contested encounter. The match is expected to have moderate goal scoring, consistent with their recent scoring averages.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has shown stronger recent form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match. Botafogo’s last 5 matches include 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a lower scoring average of 0.6 goals scored but conceding 1.6 per match. Mirassol also shows an 80% Asian Handicap win rate recently, while Botafogo’s is 40%.
- In 21 meetings since 2009, Mirassol leads with 9 wins to Botafogo's 5, with 7 draws. Mirassol also has more goals historically (33 vs. 25). The recent head-to-head trends favor Mirassol, who have a better recent win pattern against Botafogo.
- No recent critical injury information is provided; therefore, no impact assessment on starting lineups or key players can be confirmed at this time.
- Match broadcast is widely available on Brazilian channels and streaming services including Canal GOAT, Amazon Prime Video, and Premiere, indicating strong spectator engagement. No disruptive weather or pitch conditions have been reported.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points to strengthen their league position. Mirassol's recent run and confidence might give them momentum, while Botafogo’s home advantage and desire to perform well in front of home fans remain strong.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo: -150, Mirassol: 425, Draw: 265 | Botafogo to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Botafogo: -0.75 -112, Mirassol: 75 -108 | Botafogo to cover -0.75 spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25 -118, Under: 2.25 -102 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is likely to be closely contested with Mirassol posing a significant threat despite playing away. A narrow win or draw looks probable, with potential for low to moderate scoring based on recent averages and defensive records.
Predicted Score: 1-0 Botafogo
