Match Analysis: Troy Trojans vs Old Dominion Monarchs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-23
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Riverwalk Stadium, Montgomery, Alabama
Game Overview
The NCAA baseball match between the Troy Trojans and the Old Dominion Monarchs is set at Riverwalk Stadium, Montgomery, Alabama. Troy enters as the favored third seed with a strong winning record of 37-19 overall and 18-12 in conference play, while Old Dominion is the sixth seed with a 21-29 overall and 15-15 in conference record. Troy has demonstrated consistent performance throughout the season and recently won convincingly against Old Dominion in previous encounters in this Sun Belt Championship series.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy Trojans have a solid season record (37-19) with strong offensive showings, including recent wins over Old Dominion with scores such as 7-1 and 14-12. Old Dominion had a tougher season with more losses (21-29), recently struggling in the conference tournament against top teams. Troy's consistency and offensive firepower give them a performance edge.
- In recent meetings during this tournament, Troy has dominated Old Dominion, winning all matchups by comfortable margins, including a 23-6 win and a 7-1 victory. This shows a clear upper hand in direct competition.
- No specific injuries were reported in the available data for either team, suggesting both squads are likely at or near full strength for this matchup.
- The game is hosted at a neutral-ish venue, Riverwalk Stadium, which limits home advantage. Weather and other environmental conditions are typical for late May in Montgomery, Alabama, likely favorable for play without notable disruptions.
- Troy is motivated as the higher seed aiming to progress further in the Sun Belt Championship, while Old Dominion is fighting to upset a top seed and improve its postseason standing after a challenging regular season. The tournament setting increases the stakes for both.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs: 210, Troy Trojans: -280 | Troy Trojans | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs: -2.5 -120, Troy Trojans: +2.5 -110 | Troy Trojans to cover -2.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 14.5 -115, Under: 14.5 -115 | Over 14.5 runs | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 14.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 14.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans are predicted to win this match given their better overall and head-to-head performance. Their strong offensive capability and momentum from recent victories position them as the favorites to cover the spread and surpass the over/under line.
Predicted Score: Troy Trojans 9 – 5 Old Dominion Monarchs