Match Analysis: Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 16, 2025
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg, Manitoba

Game Overview

The 112th Grey Cup features the Saskatchewan Roughriders (13-6, #1 seed West) hosting the Montreal Alouettes (12-8, #2 seed East) in the CFL championship. Saskatchewan earned a dramatic late-game victory over BC in the West Final, while Montreal secured a walk-off field goal win against Hamilton in the East Final. The Roughriders boast the league's second-best defense (342 yards allowed/game) and second-best offense (383.8 yards/game), while Montreal faces significant quarterback uncertainty entering the championship with Davis Alexander dealing with a reaggravated hamstring injury.

Key Factors to Consider

• Saskatchewan finished the regular season with the best record in the CFL and demonstrated championship poise by rallying late against BC. The Roughriders' defense is elite, and their balanced offensive attack gives them multiple paths to victory. Montreal has been hot down the stretch but showed vulnerability late in the season due to QB injuries. The Alouettes' three-game winning streak masks underlying concerns about quarterback durability and depth.
• The teams split their two regular-season meetings (1-1), with Montreal winning both matchups played without Davis Alexander due to hamstring injury. This factor is critical—Alexander's injury status entering the Grey Cup creates significant uncertainty for Montreal's offensive execution at the most important game of the season.
• Davis Alexander (Montreal QB) reaggravated his hamstring injury late in the East Final victory and is a serious concern entering Sunday. His presence or absence dramatically affects Montreal's offensive ceiling. Saskatchewan appears relatively healthy with no significant injury concerns reported.
• Weather in Winnipeg forecasts a high of 2 degrees Celsius with mixed sun and cloud—cold conditions that typically favor defensive teams and ground-oriented offenses. Saskatchewan's elite defense is well-suited to capitalize on these conditions. The game is played at a neutral site (Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg), eliminating home-field advantage despite Saskatchewan being the higher seed.
• Saskatchewan seeks its first Grey Cup since 2013 after establishing the league's best regular-season record. Montreal aims for a second championship in three years and carries momentum from late-season success. However, Saskatchewan's superior regular-season performance and healthier roster provide stronger motivational positioning heading into the championship game.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Saskatchewan Roughriders will defeat the Montreal Alouettes in a defensive-heavy championship game. The Roughriders' elite defense, balanced offense, superior regular-season credentials, and Montreal's quarterback injury concerns create a favorable risk-reward profile at current odds.

Predicted Score: Saskatchewan Roughriders 24, Montreal Alouettes 18

Match Analysis: Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton

Game Overview

The CFL East Final features the Hamilton Tiger-Cats hosting the Montreal Alouettes in a high-stakes division championship. Both teams are coming off strong playoff performances, with Montreal riding a wave of momentum and Hamilton enjoying a first-round bye and home-field advantage. The Alouettes are favored by the sportsbooks, but the matchup is razor-close, with both teams having split their regular-season meetings and key injuries impacting the defensive depth of Montreal.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montreal enters the game with momentum, having just defeated Winnipeg 42-33 in the semifinal, led by Davis Alexander's 384-yard passing performance. Hamilton, meanwhile, won the East by two points and is rested after a bye week. Both teams have shown the ability to score, but Montreal's recent form and offensive firepower give them a slight edge.
• Hamilton won both regular-season matchups, but Montreal's starting QB Davis Alexander was injured for both games. With Alexander healthy, Montreal's record is 11-0 as a starter, and the Alouettes have not lost a meaningful game since September 6, when James Morgan started in Alexander's absence.
• Montreal's defensive tackle Mustafa Johnson is doubtful with a shoulder injury, which could impact their ability to stop the run. Hamilton is reportedly healthy and rested after their bye week.
• Hamilton will have a hostile home crowd, but Montreal is used to playing in tough environments. The weather is expected to be mild, with no major impact on play.
• Hamilton is seeking to end a 25-year championship drought, while Montreal is aiming to return to the Grey Cup after a strong playoff run. Both teams are highly motivated, but Montreal's recent success and Alexander's undefeated record as a starter provide a psychological edge.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Montreal Alouettes to win outright and cover the spread, with the game going over the total.

Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 31, Hamilton Tiger-Cats 27

Match Analysis: Montreal Alouettes vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 6:05 PM UTC
• Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC

Game Overview

Playoff-bound but still fighting for seeding, the Montreal Alouettes (10-8) host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8) in a late-season clash. Both teams are closely matched in both record and recent form, but Montreal holds home-field advantage and is favored by the market. The previous meeting (19-10 Winnipeg) was a defensive struggle, continuing a trend of unders and close margins in recent H2H encounters.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alouettes average 24.72 points (home: 21.33), allow 23.89 (home: 21.67). Blue Bombers rank 4th in CFL in both yards and points allowed. Both offenses have struggled in tight matchups, but Montreal's Davis Alexander is fresh off a 328-yard, 2-TD performance, while Winnipeg's Brady Oliveira is healthy and coming off a full session[1][7].
• Winnipeg leads 7-3 since August 2022, including a recent 19-10 victory. Under is 5-0 in Winnipeg’s last 5 games and 2-0 in H2H meetings this season. Winnipeg is 4-1 in last 5 Montreal visits, but current market has Montreal as substantial favorites[1][5].
• No major injuries reported for either squad. Oliveira (WPG) is healthy; Alexander (MTL) is in form[7].
• High stakes for final playoff seeding. If Hamilton wins Friday night, Montreal could potentially rest starters, but this seems less likely given tight playoff race. Weather is not a stated factor.
• Both teams fighting for playoff position. Winnipeg needs to avoid crossover, Montreal wants home-field edge. Expect both teams to play starters if seeding is on the line.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Montreal delivers at home in a low-scoring defensive battle, but Winnipeg covers the inflated spread.

Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 22, Winnipeg Blue Bombers 17

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Match Analysis: Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-25
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Unknown

Game Overview

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are heavily favored over the Montreal Alouettes, with significant odds in their favor across all markets. Historical performances and recent form suggest the Blue Bombers have a strong advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Winnipeg has shown consistent strength in recent games, while Montreal has struggled with inconsistency.
• Historically, Winnipeg has had favorable outcomes against Montreal.
• Injury reports are not specified, but they could impact the game dynamics.
• Weather conditions and crowd support could influence the game but are not detailed.
• Both teams are motivated, but Winnipeg's position in the standings might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win, Montreal Alouettes to cover the spread, and the total to go under 49.5.

Predicted Score: Winnipeg Blue Bombers 23, Montreal Alouettes 20

Match Analysis: Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: TD Place Stadium, Ottawa

Game Overview

The Montreal Alouettes visit the Ottawa Redblacks in a late-season CFL matchup with Montreal fighting for the East division title and Ottawa eliminated from playoff contention.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montreal holds a strong 9-7 record and has won the previous encounter decisively 30-10. Ottawa is struggling with a 4-12 record and four consecutive losses.
• Montreal dominated their recent meeting with Ottawa. Ottawa has found it difficult to contain Montreal offensively in past matchups this season.
• Montreal’s starting QB Davis Alexander is slightly injury-prone but expected to play. Ottawa is operating with a third-string QB Tyrie Adams, limiting their offensive potential.
• Ottawa’s home venue offers some home-field benefit, but Montreal’s form and motivation mitigate this. The weather and time are neutral factors.
• Montreal is motivated to keep the division title race alive, whereas Ottawa has no playoff motivation, which heavily favors Montreal’s intensity and focus.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Montreal Alouettes moneyline, Montreal -9.5 spread, under 51.5 total points

Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 28 – Ottawa Redblacks 17

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Match Analysis: Montreal Alouettes vs Ottawa Redblacks – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-13
• Time: 5:05 PM UTC
• Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC

Game Overview

Montreal Alouettes (8-7) face Ottawa Redblacks (4-11) in Week 19 of the 2025 CFL season. Montreal has secured a playoff spot and looks to build momentum, while Ottawa is eliminated and likely not fielding their strongest lineup. Montreal is a heavy favorite at home, with the spread set at -13.5 and total points line at 51.5.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montreal is on a strong trajectory with QB Davis Alexander (9-0 as CFL starter) returning from injury and delivering high yardage and efficiency. Ottawa struggles with inconsistency and a poor record, recently losing 20-13 to Saskatchewan with turnovers hurting their offense.
• Recent performances show Montreal dominating Ottawa, with Montreal winning the last meetings comfortably. Ottawa has not contested Montreal well, especially with Montreal's solid home advantage.
• Montreal’s QB Davis Alexander returned from hamstring injury effectively. Ottawa’s key offensive players have underperformed or been turnover-prone. No major injury news strongly impacts Montreal, while Ottawa’s depth is questionable given their season status.
• Game played on Thanksgiving Monday, potentially impacting short week dynamics, but Montreal’s motivation to prepare for playoffs is higher. Weather and stadium conditions favor home team consistency.
• Montreal aims to solidify playoff momentum; Ottawa appears to be in 'rebuilding mode' with no postseason stakes, possibly leading to a less motivated or younger roster.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Montreal Alouettes to win outright and cover the -13.5 spread with total points expected to finish over 51.5

Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 34 – Ottawa Redblacks 17

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