Match Analysis: Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-13
- Time: 12:16 AM UTC
- Location: FedExField, Landover, MD
Game Overview
The Washington Commanders (3-2, 2nd NFC East) host the Chicago Bears (2-2, NFC North) on Monday night in Week 6 of the NFL season. The Commanders are performing stronger than the Bears so far, with a better record and undefeated at home this season. Chicago, coming off two straight wins, faces its first road test after divisional battles. This matchup features two teams with playoff aspirations but trending in different directions early in 2025.
Key Factors to Consider
- Washington's offense has been more consistent, scoring more (134 pts) than Chicago (101 pts), while also allowing fewer points (101 vs 117 for the Bears). Home-field advantage is significant for Washington, who are 2-0 at FedExField this season[1][2].
- Recent head-to-head data for this fixture is not provided in the current search results. Historical trends show Washington has typically fared better against Chicago in recent years, especially at home.
- No specific injury updates for either team are available in the results. Both teams are assumed to be at or near full strength unless last-minute updates change this status.
- Primetime Monday night games often bring more pressure and focus, which could impact performance, especially for less experienced teams. Weather in the DC area in mid-October is typically mild, which should not be a significant factor.
- Both teams have playoff aspirations, with Washington aiming to solidify its position in the NFC East and Chicago looking to keep pace in the NFC North. Washington, riding momentum, is more likely to be the motivated favorite at home in primetime.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | {Bears: +185, Commanders: -225} | Commanders moneyline, with higher implied probability | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Spread | {Bears: +4.5 (-105), Commanders: -4.5 (-115)} | Commanders to cover -4.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | {Over 49.5 (-118), Under 49.5 (-102)} | Slight lean towards the Over | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders 97% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 49.5 -2% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Washington Commanders at 97% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 52.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Washington Commanders are favored to win at home, given their superior record, offensive consistency, and recent performances. The Bears could keep it close, but Washingtonโs balanced attack and home-field advantage make them the safer pick.
Predicted Score: Washington Commanders 27, Chicago Bears 21