Match Analysis: Montreal Alouettes vs Calgary Stampeders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC
Game Overview
The Calgary Stampeders (8-5) visit the Montreal Alouettes (7-7) for a key CFL matchup. Montreal is slightly favored as the home team with a narrow point spread advantage. Both teams feature starting quarterbacks Vernon Adams Jr. for Montreal and James Morgan for Calgary. Recent form has been mixed as Calgary suffered a heavy loss to the Lions (52-23) while Montreal bounced back convincingly with a 48-31 win over Saskatchewan. The total betting line is set at 50.5 points, indicating expectations of moderate scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montreal has shown resilience, snapping a five-game losing streak with a strong offensive showing led by Vernon Adams Jr. Calgary, despite a good season record, stumbled heavily in their most recent outing with key turnovers and poor offensive output.
- Historical matchups indicate a tight contest, with Montreal holding slight home-field advantage. Recent encounters have been competitive, but the momentum favors Montreal after their last win.
- No major injury reports affecting starting quarterbacks or key offensive players were noted in the latest reports, maintaining both teams' expected strength on offense.
- Playing at home in Percival Molson Memorial Stadium in Montreal gives the Alouettes a potential crowd advantage and familiar conditions. Weather not mentioned as a significant factor.
- Montrealโs recent win to end a losing streak provides strong motivation to continue their momentum. Calgary seeks to rebound from a heavy loss and maintain their playoff positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Calgary Stampeders: 164, Montreal Alouettes: -200 | Montreal Alouettes | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
| Spread | Calgary Stampeders +4.5: -115, Montreal Alouettes -4.5: -105 | Montreal Alouettes -4.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5: -110, Under 50.5: -110 | Under 50.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montreal Alouettes -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 15% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montreal Alouettes are predicted to win narrowly owing to home advantage, recent form recovery, and better offensive execution compared to Calgaryโs recent struggles.
Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 28 – Calgary Stampeders 23