This MLB match features the Miami Marlins hosting the Philadelphia Phillies in the final game of a three-game series. The Phillies lead the NL East standings by seven games and aim to maintain their division lead. The starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker (4-7, 3.92 ERA), while Miami's starter remains undecided, adding uncertainty to their pitching strength. Phillies have the upper hand in pitching and recent consistency, playing away from home against a Marlins team still settling their rotation.
Key Factors to Consider
Philadelphia Phillies have demonstrated strong performance this season and currently hold a commanding lead in the NL East. Miami Marlins have struggled to finalize their starting pitcher situation for this game, possibly affecting their competitiveness.
The Phillies have generally been favored in recent matchups in this series, given their stronger starting pitching and standings advantage. The current series is concluding with this game at Miami's home field.
No significant injuries were reported for either team that could critically affect the match outcome.
Home field advantage is with the Miami Marlins, but the pitching uncertainty for Miami and Phillies’ strong form reduce the impact of venue advantage. Weather and other external factors have not been indicated to affect gameplay.
Philadelphia is motivated to secure the division by avoiding any late-season slip-ups. Miami may be playing with less pressure but needs to capitalize on home advantage and unsettle Philadelphia.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Miami Marlins: +108, Philadelphia Phillies: -126
Philadelphia Phillies to win
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Miami Marlins: -1.5 -164, Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 136
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over: 9 -105, Under: 9 -115
Estimate close to Over 9 runs
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies 4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 9 7%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies are favored to win considering superior pitching stability and overall season performance. Miami’s undecided starting pitcher lowers their chances.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5 – Miami Marlins 3
The Miami Marlins visit Nationals Park to face the Washington Nationals in an MLB regular-season matchup. The Marlins own a 65-74 record, placing third in the NL East, while the Nationals stand at 55-83, fifth in the division. Miami seeks to continue recent momentum against a struggling Washington squad. Starting pitchers are RHP Eury Perez (6-4, 4.04 ERA) for the Marlins and LHP Mitchell Parker (7-15, 5.94 ERA) for the Nationals. The game is expected to be competitive but favors Miami given pitching matchups and current form.
Key Factors to Consider
Miami Marlins' offense is moderate, averaging 4.34 runs per game but with pitching allowing 4.96 runs per game, ranking mid-tier in team batting but weaker in pitching. Washington Nationals have a poor overall record and pitching struggles, with Mitchell Parker's elevated ERA indicating continued difficulty. Nationals recently won the prior game 5-2 but have an overall poorer recent form and away/home splits favoring Miami.
Miami and Washington have faced off several times this season with mixed results. Nationals won the last game 5-2, but Marlins hold better season performance overall. Recent meetings suggest a marginal edge to Miami given pitching advantages and offensive consistency.
Miami placed pitcher Edward Cabrera on 15-day IL with right elbow sprain. Other pitchers like Lake Bachar have pitched recently but with mixed success. Washington has no significant injury reports that impact starting lineup for this game.
Game is played at Nationals Park with Washington as home team, potentially providing some home-field advantage. Weather or other conditions have not been noted as significant. Broadcast on FDSFL, starting at 1:05 p.m. EDT.
Miami still fighting for better standing and playoff chances at 65-74, motivated to win on the road. Washington's poor record lessens playoff hopes, but home crowd and desire to stop losing streak add motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Miami Marlins: -138, Washington Nationals: 118
Miami Marlins ML
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Miami Marlins: -1.5 +114, Washington Nationals: +1.5 -137
Miami Marlins -1.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 9: -108, Under 9: -112
Under 9 runs
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Miami Marlins -7%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 9 10%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Marlins are favored to win this matchup due to superior pitching matchup and better season form. Washington's offensive and pitching struggles lower their chances despite home-field advantage.
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 5 – Washington Nationals 3
The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins in an MLB regular season matchup. The teams recently played a tightly contested game on August 30, 2025, indicating competitive dynamics. The Mets hold home field advantage at Citi Field, beneficial for their offense and pitching.
Key Factors to Consider
The Mets have shown resilience with recent wins, including an extra innings victory against the Marlins earlier in the season (6-5). The Marlins are competitive but the Mets have a stronger home record and key offensive stars like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto active.
In their meeting on April 2, 2025, Mets edged Marlins 6-5 in 11 innings, emphasizing closely matched teams. Recent games show competitive scoring with Mets generally having a slight edge at home.
No major injury updates available for either team impacting this game significantly. Current reports do not indicate key starters are sidelined.
Game held at Citi Field favors Mets due to familiar hitting and pitching environment. Weather and other external disruptions not reported as significant for this match.
As late August approaches postseason contention discussions, both teams are motivated to secure wins; Mets fighting for playoff positioning at home have higher incentive.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Miami Marlins: 146, New York Mets: -174
New York Mets
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Miami Marlins: 1.5 -140, New York Mets: -1.5 116
New York Mets -1.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
over: 8 -114, under: 8 -106
Over 8 runs
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
New York Mets -1%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 8 3%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets are favored to win this game due to home advantage, stronger recent offensive output, and slightly better odds reflecting confidence in their pitching and batting lineup.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 5 – Miami Marlins 3