Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, Brazil
Game Overview
The match features Mirassol hosting Santos in the Brazilian Serie A. Mirassol sit mid-table and have had moderate success at home, while Santos recently claimed a notable win against league leaders Flamengo but have been inconsistent overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol currently ranks 11th with a balanced home record and 4 wins in 12 matches, showing decent form especially at home. Santos’ form is patchy but boosted by a recent win over Flamengo, although their inconsistency may limit dominance.
- Mirassol holds a slight edge in previous encounters with Santos, reflected in the slight probability advantage given to Mirassol in winning the match in recent betting analysis.
- No significant injuries reported that would drastically affect starting lineups for either team, allowing both sides to field competitive squads.
- Match is played at Mirassol's stadium giving them home advantage; favorable weather conditions expected and VAR is in use.
- Mirassol motivated to consolidate their mid-table standing with home advantage. Santos motivated to build on their recent high-profile win to improve league position.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol: 150, Santos: 205, Draw: 215 | Mirassol | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Spread | Mirassol -0.25 @ 1.12, Santos +25 @ 1.34 | Mirassol -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 @ 98, Under 2.25 @ 1.18 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol to win on the moneyline, covering the spread narrowly with a low-scoring match under the total goals line.
Predicted Score: 1-0