Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-25
- Time: 11:06 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles (44-57) host the Colorado Rockies (25-76) in an interleague matchup between two struggling teams. Baltimore has a modest home-field advantage and has shown recent signs of life, while Colorado is enduring one of the worst seasons in MLB history. Pitchers Kyle Freeland (COL, road ERA struggles) and Dean Kremer (BAL, solid home numbers) are set to start.
Key Factors to Consider
- Baltimore is 1-4 in their last five, but just secured a win against Cleveland, hinting at possible momentum. Coloradoβs form is dismal, with MLBβs worst record. Offensively, both teams are mediocre, with the Orioles averaging about 2.9 runs per game in their last 10, and Colorado at 5 runs per game over the season. Defensively, both teams allow significant runsβOrioles roughly 5.9 runs allowed recently, Rockies far worse.
- Recent history favors Baltimore, winning 5 of the last head-to-head matchups (including 2 at home). Their most recent meeting (Sep 1, 2024) was a dominant 6-1 Orioles win. Average runs per game in H2H: Orioles 5.67, Rockies 5.
- No significant injuries noted. Both teams likely running close to full strength.
- Baltimore is at home, historically providing a small edge. Weather and other external factors are not reported as influential.
- Orioles could gain confidence from recent win and H2H record. Rockies are in a desperate spiral and may struggle to rally on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | BAL -198, COL +166 | Baltimore Orioles | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | BAL -1.5 +100, COL +1.5 -120 | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 9 -122, Under 9 +100 | Under 9 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Orioles win a relatively low-scoring game on the back of home advantage and slightly superior pitching and history.
Predicted Score: Baltimore Orioles 4, Colorado Rockies 3