Match Analysis: Texas Stars vs Grand Rapids Griffins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: H-E-B Center at Cedar Park
Game Overview
The Texas Stars host the Grand Rapids Griffins in a Central Division matchup of the AHL. Both teams are in the middle of their 2025-26 season, with this game being one of eight scheduled meetings between the two clubs. The Stars are coming off a strong playoff run last season, while the Griffins are celebrating their 30th anniversary and aiming to bounce back after a third-place finish in the division last year.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas Stars finished the 2024-25 season with a 43-26-3-0 record and advanced to the Western Conference Finals. They have a strong home record historically, with 313 wins in 568 regular-season home games. The Griffins ended last season with a 37-29-4-2 record, finishing third in the Central Division, and were swept by Texas in the division semifinals. Both teams are evenly matched in terms of recent form, but Texas has a slight edge in home performance and playoff experience.
- Texas leads the all-time series 45-32-7-5, with a 24-14-2-4 record at home. The most recent playoff meeting saw Texas sweep the Griffins 3-0 in the Central Division Semifinals. The teams are scheduled to play eight times this season, with this being the third meeting. Texas won the first two matchups this season, including a 3-2 victory in Grand Rapids on November 21 and a 4-1 win on November 22.
- No major injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both rosters appear to be at full strength for this matchup.
- The game is being played at the H-E-B Center at Cedar Park, where Texas has a strong home record. The venue is known for its supportive atmosphere, which can be a factor in close games. The Griffins are on a road trip, having played in Texas on November 21 and 22, which could impact their energy levels.
- Texas is motivated to maintain their home dominance and continue their strong start to the season. The Griffins are looking to bounce back from their recent losses and prove they can compete with the top teams in the division. Both teams are aware of the importance of this game in the context of the division race.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Stars: -105, Grand Rapids Griffins: -139 | Texas Stars | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Texas Stars +1.5: -278, Grand Rapids Griffins -1.5: 195 | Texas Stars +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: 102, Under 5.5: -137 | Under 5.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Stars 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas is favored to win this game due to their strong home record and recent success against the Griffins. The Griffins are capable of a strong performance, but Texas's home advantage and playoff experience give them the edge. The game is expected to be close, with Texas likely to win by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Texas Stars 3-2 Grand Rapids Griffins