Location: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)
Game Overview
Fluminense hosts Atletico Mineiro in a mid-table Brasileirão clash where Fluminense have the slight edge in form and home advantage, but Atletico Mineiro possess historical H2H strength and resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
Fluminense is currently 7th with 35 points from 24 matches, showing moderate form with 10 wins and 5 draws; Atletico Mineiro is 14th with 29 points, less consistent with 7 wins but 8 draws.
Historically Atletico Mineiro leads H2H with 19 wins to Fluminense's 12 in 45 matches, but recent encounters are closer; Fluminense won last season's home match and the recent matchup ended 2-2.
No major absentee information available; squads expected mostly full strength.
Match played at Maracanã offers Fluminense solid home support; both teams have comparable travel and environmental conditions.
Fluminense motivated to push for top 6 placement, Atletico Mineiro aiming to avoid relegation zone troubles and improve standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Fluminense -101, Draw +215, Atletico Mineiro +333
Fluminense
★★★★☆ 74%
Spread
Fluminense -0.5 -101, Atletico Mineiro +50 -119
Fluminense -0.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 2 -109, Under 2 -111
Under 2
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Fluminense 11%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 25%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
This Brazil Serie A matchup features Sport Recife hosting Fluminense. Fluminense currently sits 9th in the league with moderate offensive output but a tendency to concede slightly more goals than expected. Sport Recife struggles defensively with 34 goals conceded so far, but has shown competitive spirit at home and has won 4 of their recent 5 matches. Fluminense holds psychological edge with 4 consecutive wins over Sport Recife and better recent H2H stats.
Key Factors to Consider
Fluminense averages 1.18 goals scored per match and concedes around 1.32, showing defensive vulnerability despite balanced attack. Sport Recife’s defense is porous with 34 goals conceded (1.55 avg). Sport Recife’s recent form includes narrow scores, highlighting low-scoring games.
Fluminense leads recent H2H encounters with 4 consecutive wins over Sport Recife. Overall H2H favors Fluminense (8 wins vs 4 for Sport). The last direct encounter ended 2-1 to Fluminense in May 2025.
Sport Recife is missing Hereda and Sérgio Oliveira due to injury, which weakens their defensive and midfield options. Fluminense has injured Ganso and Nonato, likely affecting their creativity and midfield depth.
No significant external disruptions reported. Match is at Sport Recife’s home venue which provides them a motivational boost.
Sport Recife motivated to defend home turf and improve defensive record. Fluminense aims to maintain dominance in H2H while climbing league standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Fluminense: 153, Sport Recife: 205, Draw: 207
Fluminense
★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread
Fluminense 0: -134, Sport Recife 0: 114
Sport Recife 0
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over 2: -123, Under 2: 103
Under 2
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Fluminense 21%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 22%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline, Sport Recife +0 spread, Under 2 goals
Location: Estádio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
A Carioca derby between Fluminense and Botafogo in the Brazil Campeonato, featuring two teams with fluctuating recent form and closely matched historical performance, with Fluminense as slight favorites playing at home.
Key Factors to Consider
Botafogo shows a stronger recent form (11W-6D-6L) compared to Fluminense's inconsistent results (9W-4D-9L) including draws and losses at home. Botafogo won their recent encounter 2-0 in April 2025, indicating they can defeat Fluminense even away. Fluminense’s home form is mixed with 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss in last three games.
Across 59 matches, Botafogo has 19 wins against Fluminense, showing competitive historical balance. Recent results favor Botafogo with a 2-0 win in April 2025, but home advantage and derby motivation can swing outcomes.
No major injuries reported for either side affecting key starters, implying both teams will likely field near full-strength squads.
Playing at Maracanã gives Fluminense home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions expected normal for Rio de Janeiro late September, unlikely to affect game significantly.
Both teams are motivated due to league standings impact and local rivalry. Botafogo’s momentum and previous win over Fluminense add confidence, but home crowd support boosts Fluminense’s drive.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
+215
Botafogo
★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread
-128
Botafogo +0.25
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
-119
Under 2 Goals
★★★☆☆ 63%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Botafogo 58%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 23%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Botafogo at 58% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)
A Brasileirão Série A clash where Fluminense, currently higher in standings with better recent form, visits Vitoria, a team struggling with inconsistent results especially away.
Key Factors to Consider
Fluminense has an 8-4-8 record with recent form showing areas of strength, especially at home, but vulnerable away. Vitoria carries a weaker 4-10-9 overall record but shows moderate home resistance. Fluminense’s offense and away resilience have been better comparatively.
Historically, Fluminense has dominated this matchup with more wins; recent matches favor Fluminense but many close or drawn encounters suggest a competitive game.
No major injuries reported that severely impact starting lineups on either side based on available data.
The game is at Vitoria’s home ground potentially giving slight home advantage; however, pitch conditions and weather are standard with no significant disruptions anticipated.
Fluminense, aiming to solidify top half positioning and recover from inconsistent performances, likely has higher motivation than Vitoria who battles near the lower end for survival.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Fluminense: 193, Vitoria: 161, Draw: 195
Fluminense
★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread
Fluminense: 105, Vitoria: -125
Vitoria +0
★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under
Over: -108, Under: -112
Under 2 Goals
★★★☆☆ 58%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Fluminense 41%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 10%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 41% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Away moneyline (Fluminense win), Vitoria +0 spread, Under 2 goals
A tightly contested Brasileirão match between Fluminense and Corinthians, both with mixed recent form and a narrow historical head-to-head balance. Fluminense has a slight edge at home, while Corinthians will be missing key players due to injury and suspension.
Key Factors to Consider
Fluminense has scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches but failed to score in 2 consecutive recent matches. Corinthians has scored 7 goals in their last 5 games but conceded many penalties this season, showing some defensive vulnerabilities.
Historically very balanced with 13 Corinthians wins, 12 Fluminense wins, and 11 draws, indicating a closely matched rivalry.
Fluminense misses Samuel Xavier (injury). Corinthians have Breno Bidon suspended, and André Carrillo and Raniele injured, weakening their squad depth.
Fluminense plays at home, giving them a familiar environment advantage. Both teams are mid-table contenders, likely motivated to secure points for positioning.
Fluminense’s recent home form is stronger, and a win would solidify their position above Corinthians who are fighting to close the gap.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Fluminense: 109, Corinthians: 315, Draw: 190
Fluminense
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Fluminense -0.25: -130, Corinthians +25: 110
Fluminense -0.25
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 1.75: -134, Under 1.75: 112
Under 1.75
★★★☆☆ 65%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Fluminense 25%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 1.75 23%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense moneyline win, Fluminense -0.25 spread, Under 1.75 goals
This Brasileirão Serie A match features a mid-to-lower table Santos (15th place, 21 points) hosting Fluminense, who are mid-table (9th place, 27 points). Both teams have to push for points as Fluminense aims to climb further up the standings while Santos tries to avoid the relegation zone.
Key Factors to Consider
Fluminense has a slightly better recent form and position with 8 wins in 19 matches versus Santos' 6 wins in 20 matches. Santos has struggled with a -11 goal difference compared to Fluminense's -3.
Recent head-to-head favors Fluminense with a higher probability to win (46.86%) compared to Santos (34.94%) and a lower draw chance (18.2%).
No significant absentees reported for either side that would drastically affect starting lineups.
No notable external conditions (weather, travel issues) affect the match. Home advantage slightly favors Santos.
Fluminense motivated to improve their standing; Santos fighting relegation, adding competitive tension.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Fluminense: 212, Santos: 131, Draw: 220
Fluminense
★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread
Fluminense: -0.25 -120, Santos: +25 100
Santos -0.25
★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under
Over: 2 -125, Under: 2 +105
Over 2 goals
★★★☆☆ 63%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Fluminense 47%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 2 13%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline; Santos to cover the -0.25 spread; Over 2 goals.