Match Analysis: Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: An der alten Försterei, Berlin, Germany
Game Overview
The Bundesliga match between Union Berlin and Hamburger SV will take place at Union Berlin's home stadium, An der alten Försterei. Union Berlin currently ranks 10th in the Bundesliga standings, while Hamburger SV is positioned 15th. Union has shown a moderately stronger performance in recent matches and holds home advantage. The match features key forwards like Ilyas Ansah and Oliver Burke for Union Berlin and emerging talents for Hamburg. Previous meetings have seen Union secure wins such as the 2-0 victory in a recent encounter.
Key Factors to Consider
- Union Berlin has demonstrated better form with solid recent results, including a 4-3 win recently and strong offensive output with players like Ansah scoring 4 goals in 4 matches. Hamburger SV has struggled more but managed a close 2-1 win in a prior match and showed some attacking threat through players like Oliver Burke. Defensively, Union Berlin has slightly better clean sheet records and shots on goal stats favor them.
- Recent head-to-head matches favor Union Berlin, including a 2-0 home victory over Hamburger SV. Historical data shows Union as the more dominant side in their encounters.
- No specific injury data available in the current search results; assume standard squad fitness for both teams given the top-tier league context and match significance.
- Playing at home benefits Union Berlin with familiar conditions and supportive crowds at An der alten Försterei. The match takes place in early autumn conditions favorable for both teams. No other major external disruptions reported.
- Union Berlin is motivated to solidify their mid-table position and possibly push higher, while Hamburger SV aims to climb out of the relegation-threat zone, increasing their motivation to upset the home side.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hamburger SV: 260, Union Berlin: 100, Draw: 260 | Union Berlin win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Hamburger SV: -0.5 -120, Union Berlin: +50 100 | Union Berlin -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.75 100, Under: 2.75 -120 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Union Berlin 32% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Union Berlin at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Union Berlin is favored to win due to better form, home advantage, and stronger recent performances against Hamburger SV. The probability of a draw or away win is moderate but lower given current league status and stats.
Predicted Score: 2-0