Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Ceará – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-04
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Botafogo hosts Ceará in a Campeonato Brasileiro match. Botafogo, historically the stronger side at home, faces Ceará, which has shown moderate away form and a tendency to concede goals. Recent form, head-to-head statistics, and offensive/defensive metrics will be key to the outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo has been inconsistent but possesses a higher-scoring potential at home. Ceará averages 1.48 goals scored per game this season but is prone to defensive lapses. Botafogo’s home matches see over 1.5 goals in 58% of games, but only 33% go over 2.5 goals[2]. Ceará’s away games see over 1.5 goals in 67% of matches[2].
- Recent history is mixed; in general, Botafogo leads the long-term head-to-head, but recent matches have been tight. For Botafogo FR (Rio) vs Ceará: in 11-18 meetings, Botafogo has 2-6 wins, Ceará 3 wins, and 6-7 draws—with some confusion in data sources. Goal difference and match outcomes are close, but Botafogo’s home advantage is notable[3][4][5]. Note: If considering Botafogo SP, Ceará has a strong recent record (3 wins, 1 draw in 4 matches, high average goals), but this is not the case for Botafogo RJ[2]. The context here is Botafogo RJ.
- No specific injury updates available for either team at this time.
- Match is scheduled during the regular season, with standard weather and pitch conditions expected in Rio de Janeiro. No unusual external factors noted.
- Both teams are likely motivated to secure points. Botafogo aims to climb the table at home, while Ceará seeks to improve its away record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -160, away: 460, draw: 290 | Botafogo win | Medium-High |
| Spread | home: -0.75 -122, away: 75 102 | Botafogo covers -0.75 | Medium |
| Over/under | over: 2.25 -102, under: 2.25 -118 | Under 2.25 | Medium |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo is favored to win by a narrow margin, given home advantage and stronger squad on paper. Ceará could be dangerous on the counter, but likely to concede as well. Expect a close match with over 1.5 goals likely.
Predicted Score: Botafogo 1-0 Ceará