Match Analysis: Nice vs SC Freiburg – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Riviera, Nice, France
Game Overview
This Europa League League Phase match pits Nice, struggling in European competition with three straight defeats, against SC Freiburg, who arrive off a Bundesliga draw and recent DFB-Pokal win. Nice, despite their poor Europa League form, have been solid domestically until a late loss to PSG. Freiburg aims to capitalize on Nice’s European woes and take the lead in the group standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nice’s form in Ligue 1 is passable (three wins in five prior to losing to PSG), but they’ve lost all three Europa League matches this season—a major red flag. Defensively, their Ligue 1 record (10 scored, 6 conceded in five) looks decent, but European competition has exposed them. Freiburg, meanwhile, was on a long unbeaten run before losing to Leverkusen but recovered with a cup win and goalless Bundesliga draw. They’re solid but not spectacular.
- No notable previous encounters between these teams in recent years. This is a new matchup in UEFA competition[6].
- No specific injury news highlighted in the previews, but lineups are predicted as: Nice (5-4-1): Diouf; Mendy, Bah, Oppong, Bard, Abdi; Gouveia, Louchet, Bouadoui, Sanson; Jansson. Freiburg (4-2-3-1): Atubolu; Treu, Ginter, Rosenfelder, Makengo; Eggestein, Manzambi; Beste, Höler, Grifo; Adamu[3].
- Nice is at home but under pressure for their European form. Weather and travel are not expected to be major factors, but Nice’s recent late loss may impact morale.
- Nice desperately needs to jumpstart their European campaign. Freiburg, with chances to top the group, has strong incentive but may rotate squad due to busy German domestic schedule.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nice: +166, SC Freiburg: +164, Draw: +228 | Draw (slightly lean SC Freiburg on the price) | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
| Spread | Nice 0 (-113), SC Freiburg 0 (-115) | Push (match likely to be decided by one goal or less) | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-115), Under 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 27% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A tight, low-scoring match is expected. Nice’s European form is concerning, but home advantage might help them grind out a result. Freiburg is consistent but not prolific away. A draw or narrow home win is most likely, with under 2.5 goals a strong possibility given both teams’ cautious approaches.
Predicted Score: 1-1