Match Analysis: Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 8:45 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Game Overview
Middleweight bout between Azamat Bekoev (20-3, 2-0 UFC), a highly experienced, well-rounded finisher with a ground-and-pound base, and Yousri Belgaroui (8-3, 0-0 UFC), a lanky, dangerous kickboxer making his UFC debut after notable Contender Series KO.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bekoev is on an eight-fight win streak, finishing both UFC fights by TKO. He averages 7.59 significant strikes per minute (landing 61%), absorbs 4.48, and defends 46% of strikes. Belgaroui lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute (60%), absorbs 2.65, and defends 57%. Bekoev has superior MMA experience and finishing ability (16 finishes evenly split KO/sub). Belgaroui has six KO wins, but has been outgrappled before and has far less MMA experience.
- First meeting.
- No reported injuries.
- Belgaroui is making his UFC debut, which can bring pressure and unpredictability, but he also hasn't fought in over a year. Bekoev fights out of American Top Team and is active.
- Bekoev is a rising contender, motivated to climb rankings. Belgaroui is looking to make a splash in his UFC debut and prove he belongs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bekoev -310, Belgaroui +250 | Bekoev win | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Bekoev -7.5 -135, Belgaroui +7.5 +100 | Bekoev -7.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 -210, Under 1.5 +160 | Under 1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Azamat Bekoev 187% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 51% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Azamat Bekoev at 187% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 74.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bekoev is a substantial betting favorite for good reason: superior experience, finishing ability, and well-rounded skills, especially grappling, should dictate the fight. Belgaroui’s striking is dangerous, but his lack of MMA experience and history of being outgrappled are major concerns against a fighter of Bekoev’s caliber. Expect Bekoev to pressure, look for takedowns, and dominate either with ground-and-pound or a submission.
Predicted Score: Bekoev by Submission or TKO, Round 2