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Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs Bo Nickal - Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-04
  • Time: 3:45 AM UTC
  • Location: Des Moines

Game Overview

Middleweight co-main event between undefeated prospect Bo Nickal and two-division ONE Championship veteran Reinier de Ridder. De Ridder aims to leverage his elite submission skills (13 career submission wins) against Nickal's elite wrestling pedigree. Both fighters are undefeated in the UFC, with de Ridder coming off two first-round submissions of Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland.

Key Factors to Consider

  • De Ridder: 19-0 record (13 subs), UFC wins via RNC and D'Arce choke. Nickal: 5-0 record (4 subs), UFC wins via D'Arce and kimura.
  • First meeting. Nickal's NCAA D1 wrestling pedigree vs de Ridder's BJJ black belt mastery.
  • No reported injuries. De Ridder mentioned weight management post-fight but not an active concern.
  • Significant fan anticipation around Nickal ('The Great American Hope') counterbalanced by de Ridder's championship experience in major organizations.
  • De Ridder seeks top-5 ranking and title shot path with win. Nickal aims to validate hyped prospect status.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Nickal -340 / de Ridder +270 Nickal moneyline ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Nickal -3.5 (-190) / de Ridder +3.5 (+140) Nickal covers -3.5 spread ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-105) / Under 2.5 (-125) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bo Nickal 152%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bo Nickal at 152% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nickal by decision (55%) or de Ridder by submission (45%). High probability of grappling-heavy bout with Nickal's wrestling likely controlling early rounds, but de Ridder's submission threat persists throughout.

Predicted Score: No score prediction (MMA). Most likely outcome: Nickal by 3rd-round ground-and-pound TKO (30% probability) or de Ridder by 2nd-round submission (25% probability).

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Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal Prediction

Match Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs Bo Nickal – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-05-04 Time: 3:45 AM UTC Location: Des Moines Game Overview Middleweight co-main event between undefeated prospect Bo Nickal and two-division ONE Championship veteran Reinier de Ridder. De Ridder aims to leverage his elite submission skills (13 career submission wins) against Nickal's elite […]

Bo Nickal May 4, 2025 MMA/Boxing Reinier de Ridder

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Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Cameron Smotherman vs Serhiy Sidey – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 2:45 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Game Overview

Cameron Smotherman faces Serhiy Sidey in a UFC Bantamweight match. Smotherman enters with a record of 12-4, while Sidey has a record of 11-2. This fight features contrasting styles, with Smotherman focusing on significant strikes and Sidey having a notable submission threat.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Smotherman has a higher strike volume, averaging 6.25 significant strikes per minute, compared to Sidey's 4.87. However, Sidey excels in submission attempts, averaging 1.4 every 15 minutes.
  • This is their first match-up.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
  • The fight's location at Wells Fargo Arena may have minimal impact as both fighters are accustomed to various environments.
  • Both fighters will be highly motivated, given the stakes in the UFC Bantamweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cameron Smotherman: +114, Serhiy Sidey: -135 Serhiy Sidey ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Cameron Smotherman: +3.5 -175, Serhiy Sidey: -3.5 125 Serhiy Sidey ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -188, Under: 2.5 145 Under ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Serhiy Sidey -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Serhiy Sidey is likely to win due to his strong submission game and slight edge in UFC performance so far.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Serhiy Sidey


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Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 2:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Game Overview

Jeremy Stephens returns to the UFC to face Mason Jones in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo. Stephens has a competitive track record in MMA and additional experience in boxing and bare-knuckle fighting, while Jones is favored due to his recent form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Jeremy Stephens has had varied success across MMA, boxing, and bare-knuckle fighting. Mason Jones is entering with strong momentum.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
  • No specific injury reports for either fighter are mentioned.
  • The event takes place in Des Moines, which might favor Stephens due to potential crowd support.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, with Stephens seeking a strong comeback in the UFC and Jones looking to maintain his winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Stephens: +425, Jones: -575 Mason Jones ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Stephens: 3.5 +180, Jones: -3.5 -250 Mason Jones to win by decision or finish ★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -135 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mason Jones -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mason Jones is predicted to win due to his strong current form and favorable odds.

Predicted Score: Mason Jones by TKO/KO in the second round


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Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Yana Santos vs Miesha Tate – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 1:45 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Game Overview

Women's Bantamweight Bout between seasoned veteran Miesha Tate (20-9) and Yana Santos (15-8, 1NC). Tate returns with wrestling-focused experience, while Santos brings striking versatility.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Tate holds notable wins over elite competition but is 1-2 in her last three bouts. Santos shows consistency with a 3-2 UFC record, including recent technical decision wins.
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries pre-fight.
  • Event streams live on ESPN+, with potential judging scrutiny due to Iowa's limited UFC event history.
  • Tate seeks redemption after recent losses; Santos aims to climb rankings with high-profile win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Tate -142 / Santos +120 Miesha Tate ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Tate -3.5 (+150) / Santos +3.5 (-205) Santos +3.5 covers ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-395) / Under 2.5 (+280) Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Miesha Tate -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Miesha Tate by decision (confidence based on grappling control and cage experience)

Predicted Score: Decision victory (3-round bout)


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Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Marina Rodriguez vs Gillian Robertson – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-03
  • Time: 12:45 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

Strawweight bout between No. 9-ranked Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) and No. 12 Gillian Robertson (15-8) at UFC Fight Night prelims. Rodriguez (1-4 in last 5) faces Robertson (5-1 in last 6), who thrives since returning to 115lbs in 2023.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rodriguez averages 4.64 significant strikes/min (46% accuracy) with 55% defense. Robertson lands 2.89/min (48% accuracy) with 56% defense. Rodriguez struggles against grapplers, while Robertson excels in ground control.
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries.
  • Strawweight division is wide open; winner could enter title conversation. Rodriguez’s recent split-decision losses suggest judging trends may favor activity over control time.
  • Robertson (-305 favorite) seeks sixth win in seven fights to secure Top 10 status. Rodriguez (+245 underdog) fights to avoid three-fight skid and career decline.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Robertson -305 / Rodriguez +245 Robertson ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Robertson -3.5 (-120) / Rodriguez +3.5 (-110) Robertson -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-238) / Under 2.5 (+180) Over 2.5 ★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gillian Robertson -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Robertson by decision (70% confidence) via superior grappling control and Rodriguez’s declining takedown defense. Rodriguez’s striking edge unlikely to offset Robertson’s ground dominance over three rounds.

Predicted Score: Robertson by unanimous decision (29-28 x3)


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Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Ryan Loder vs Azamat Bekoev – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 12:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

Middleweight bout featuring Ryan 'Man of Steel' Loder (8-1-0) vs Azamat 'Iron' Bekoev (19-3-0). Both fighters are coming off successful UFC debuts, with Loder showcasing wrestling pedigree and Bekoev demonstrating higher striking volume (6.85 vs 6.16 sig. strikes/min).

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bekoev holds significant edge in professional experience (19 wins vs 8). Loder's wrestling background could neutralize Bekoev's striking advantage if he implements grappling-heavy approach.
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries pre-fight.
  • Event takes place in Loder's home country (USA vs Russia) but no clear venue advantage specified.
  • Critical matchup for establishing position in UFC middleweight division, with both fighters seeking second consecutive UFC win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bekoev -410 | Loder +320 Azamat Bekoev ★★★★☆ 73%
Spread Bekoev -3.5 (-205) | Loder +3.5 (+150) Bekoev -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-115) | Under 2.5 (-115) Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Azamat Bekoev -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bekoev by decision (60% confidence) – superior striking volume (6.85/min vs 6.16) and defensive metrics suggest he can outpoint Loder if kept standing. Potential for Loder submission upset if fight hits mat.

Predicted Score: Bekoev via unanimous decision (29-28)


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Gaston Bolanos vs. Quang Le Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Gaston Bolanos vs Quang Le – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 12:15 AM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC bantamweight bout between Gaston Bolanos and Quang Le is a significant matchup for both fighters seeking to solidify their positions in the UFC. Bolanos, with a record of 8-4, has shown strong striking skills, while Le, 8-2, has faced setbacks in his recent UFC appearances.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bolanos has secured six of his eight wins via knockout and has a solid UFC performance record. Le, known for his knockout potential, has struggled in recent fights, losing to Chris Gutierrez and Xiao Long.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter.
  • The fight is part of a major UFC event, which could impact performance due to the high stakes.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a win and improve their UFC standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bolanos: -130, Le: 110 Gaston Bolanos ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Bolanos: -3.5 125, Le: 3.5 -175 Gaston Bolanos ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -166, Under: 2.5 130 Over 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Gaston Bolanos 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Gaston Bolanos at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gaston Bolanos is favored to win due to his consistent performances and well-rounded skills.

Predicted Score: Gaston Bolanos wins via decision (30-27 or similar).


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Thomas Petersen vs. Don'Tale Mayes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Thomas Petersen vs Don'Tale Mayes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Time: 11:20 PM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

The fight between Thomas Petersen and Don'Tale Mayes is a heavyweight bout taking place at UFC Fight Night on May 3, 2025. Both fighters are looking to rebound from recent losses. Petersen is known for his wrestling background, while Mayes brings a significant physical presence and knockout power.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Thomas Petersen has a record of 9-3 but has struggled with striking defense. Don'Tale Mayes has an 11-8 record and has been inconsistent, losing two straight fights.
  • There is no significant head-to-head data available for this match.
  • No notable injuries have been reported for either fighter.
  • Both fighters are motivated to start a winning streak after recent defeats.
  • High motivation on both sides to secure a victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Thomas Petersen: -255, Don'Tale Mayes: 215 Thomas Petersen Not available
Over/under over: -154, under: 124 Over 2.5 Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Thomas Petersen 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Thomas Petersen is favored to win due to his wrestling background and recent form, but Mayes' size and knockout power could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA fights


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Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrovic Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Juliana Miller vs Ivana Petrovic – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-03
  • Time: 11:15 PM UTC
  • Location: Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA

Game Overview

Flyweight bout between Juliana Miller (4-3-0, 1-2 UFC), an aggressive striker with defensive vulnerabilities, and Ivana Petrovic (7-2-0, 1-2 UFC), a durable southpaw with superior reach and decision-oriented style. Miller's UFC future may hinge on this fight[2][5].

Key Factors to Consider

  • Miller lands 3.31 significant strikes/min (45% accuracy) but absorbs 4.75/min (32% defense). Petrovic lands 2.00/min (39% accuracy) while allowing only 2.27/min (55% defense)[1].
  • First meeting between fighters.
  • No reported injuries.
  • Miller's 18-month layoff vs. Petrovic's recent activity. 5'8" Petrovic holds 4" reach advantage[1][2].
  • Miller potentially fighting for UFC roster spot; Petrovic seeking second UFC win[2][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Petrovic -220 / Miller +185 Petrovic moneyline ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds -210 / Under 2.5 +170 Over 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Ivana Petrovic 85%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ivana Petrovic at 85% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 46.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Petrovic by decision (confidence: 75%) via superior defense, reach advantage, and Miller's tendency to fade against technical strikers[1][2][5].

Predicted Score: Petrovic via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)


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Nauzet Trujillo vs. Liam Nolan Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nauzet Trujillo vs Liam Nolan – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-02
  • Time: 11:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Lumpinee Stadium, Bangkok

Game Overview

Originally scheduled as a lightweight Muay Thai rematch, Liam Nolan's opponent was changed to Abolfazl Alipourandi after Nauzet Trujillo withdrew. However, based on the query's focus on Trujillo vs. Nolan, this analysis assumes the original matchup is active (contrary to live updates). Historical context: Trujillo defeated Nolan via unanimous decision in February 2024 with a second-round knockdown, but Nolan returns with a revamped team (Michael Wakeling, Danny Beevor) and renewed focus after CEO Chatri Sityodtong personally persuaded him out of retirement[1][3][5].

Key Factors to Consider

  • Trujillo holds a 1-2 ONE Championship record (losses to top-tier competition). Nolan, a former WBC Muay Thai champion, rebuilt his training camp but lacks recent in-competition data due to retirement[1][2][5].
  • Trujillo leads 1-0; utilized forward pressure and clinch dominance in their first meeting. Nolan claims improved overall skills but admits Trujillo's danger[1][2][4].
  • Nolan previously fought through a broken bone during their first match. No current injury reports, but Trujillo's withdrawal reason remains unspecified[1][3].
  • Venue familiarity (Lumpinee Stadium) neutral. Late opponent changes likely introduce preparation instability (though Nolan's new team appears structured)[3][5].
  • Nolan seeks redemption and title contention. Trujillo aims to solidify standing in the division after mixed results[1][2][5].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Liam Nolan (-240), Nauzet Trujillo (+165) Liam Nolan ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Liam Nolan -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Liam Nolan at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nolan by decision (if fight proceeds as queried). Higher technical output expected from rebuilt striking arsenal offsets Trujillo's pressure-based approach.

Predicted Score: Unavailable (non-scoring sport). Method prediction: Nolan via unanimous decision (if match occurred). Reality note: Nolan now faces Alipourandi per latest updates[3][5].


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