Match Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-28
- Time: 10:46 PM UTC
- Location: Citizens Bank Park
Game Overview
Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves in an NL East matchup featuring the division-leading Phillies with strong home form against a struggling Braves team fighting for a playoff spot.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies hold a 76-57 season record with a dominant 42-22 home record, while Braves are 61-72 overall and 28-39 on the road; Phillies have lost 3 consecutive games recently but generally perform well as favorites.
- Phillies have the edge in recent meetings and have won about 60% of such matchups; Braves are 1-2 in moneyline underdog situations similar to today.
- Phillies missing key pitchers Jordan Romano and Zack Wheeler on the 15-day IL; Braves currently healthier but overall pitching and hitting depth is weaker.
- Game weather is mostly sunny, 76Β°F, low wind and negligible precipitation, favoring hitting conditions; home field advantage for Phillies significant.
- Phillies aiming to maintain a 4-game lead atop the division; Braves fighting to keep pace for a wild card spot, adding pressure but also urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Phillies -188, Braves +158 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Phillies -1.5 +106, Braves +1.5 -128 | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9.5 -105, Under 9.5 -115 | Under 9.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline and cover the -1.5 spread with total runs expected to stay under 9.5.
Predicted Score: Phillies 5 – Braves 3